The authors empirically demonstrate the existence of flexible consumption rates in packaged-goods products, how this phenomenon can be modeled, and its importance in assessing the effectiveness of sales promotion. They specify an incidence, choice, and quantity model in which category consumption varies with the level of household inventory. The authors use two different functions to relate consumption rates to household inventory and estimate the models using scanner panel data from two product categories: yogurt and ketchup. Both functions provide a significantly better fit than a conventional model, which assumes a constant daily usage rate. They also have strong discriminant validity; yogurt consumption is found to be much more flexible with respect to inventory than ketchup consumption is. The authors use a Monte Carlo simulation to decompose the long-term impact of promotion into brand switching and consumption effects and conclude with the implications of their findings for researchers and managers.
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