The authors propose and calibrate a “split hazard” model that allows simultaneous modeling of observed heterogeneity with respect to both probability and timing of eventual adoption. Model validation with data for the diffusion of automatic teller machines (ATM) across 3689 banks demonstrates the robustness of the model framework to conceptual and distributional assumptions.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
BaldridgeJ. B., and BurnhamR. A. (1975), “Organizational Innovation: Individual, Organizational, and Environmental Impacts,”Administrative Science Quarterly, 20(June), 165–76.
2.
BassFrank M. (1969), “A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables,”Management Science, 15(January), 215–27.
3.
BurgerPhilip C., BassFrank M., and PessemierEdgar A. (1968), “Forecasting New Product Sales,” working paper, Northwestern University (March).
4.
ChatterjeeRabikar, and EliashbergJehoshua (1990), “Innovation Diffusion Process: A Micro-Modeling Approach,”Management Science, 36(September), 1057–79.
5.
FederGershon, and O'MaraGerald T. (1982), “On Information and Innovation Diffusion: A Bayesian Approach,”American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 64(February), 145–7.
6.
GatignonHubert, and RobertsonThomas S. (1989), “Technology Diffusion: An Empirical Test of Competitive Effects,”Journal of Marketing, 53(January), 35–49.
7.
HanAaron, and HausmanJerry (1990), “Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models,”Journal of Applied Econometrics, 5(June), 1–28.
8.
HannanTimothy, and McDowellJohn D. (1984), “The Determinants of Technology Adoption: The Case of the Banking Firm,”Rand Journal of Economics, 15, 328–35.
9.
HauserJohn R., and WisniewskiKenneth J. (1982), “Dynamic Analysis of Consumer Response to Marketing Strategies,”Management Science, 28(5), 455–86.
10.
HeckmanJames J., and SingerBurton (1984), “Econometric Duration Analysis,”Journal of Econometrics, 24, 63–132.
11.
HorskyDan, and SimonLeonard S. (1983), “Advertising and the Diffusion of New Products,”Marketing Science, 2(Winter), 1–17.
12.
JainDipak, and VilcassimNaufel J. (1991), “Investigating Household Purchase Timing Decisions: A Conditional Hazard Function Approach,”Marketing Science, 10(Winter), 1–23.
13.
JensenRichard (1982), “Adoption and Diffusion of an Innovation of Uncertain Profitability,”Journal of Economic Theory, 27, 182–93.
14.
KalbfleischJohn D., and PrenticeRobert L. (1980), The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data.New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
15.
KalishShlomo (1983), “Monopolist Pricing With Dynamic Demand and Production Cost,”Marketing Science, 2(Spring), 135–60.
16.
KalishShlomo (1985), “A New Product Adoption Model With Pricing, Advertising and Uncertainty,”Management Science, 31(December), 1569–85.
17.
KalishShlomo, and LilienGary L. (1986), “Applications of Innovation Diffusion Models in Marketing,” in Innovation Diffusion Models of New Product Acceptance, MahajanVijay, and WindYoram, eds. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Company.
18.
KimberlyJohn R. (1981), “Managerial Innovation,”in Handbook of Organizational Design, NystromP. C., and StarbuckW. H., eds. New York: Oxford University Press,84–104.
19.
KmentaJan (1986), Elements of Econometrics.New York: Macmillan Publishing Company.
20.
KotlerPhilip (1971), Marketing Decision Making: A Model Building Approach.New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston.
21.
LevinSharon G., LevinStanford L., and MeiselJohn B. (1987), “A Dynamic Analysis of the Adoption of a New Technology: The Case of Optical Scanners,”Review of Economics and Statistics, 69, 12–17.
22.
LilienGary L., RaoAmbar G., and KalishShlomo (1981), “Bayesian Estimation and Control of Detailing Effort in a Repeat-Purchase Diffusion Environment,”Management Science, 27(May), 493–506.
23.
MahajanVijay, and MullerEitan, and BassFrank M. (1990), “New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research,”Journal of Marketing, 54(January), 1–26.
24.
MansfieldEdwin (1961), “Technical Change and the Rate of Imitation,”Econometrica, 29(October), 741–66.
25.
MansfieldEdwin (1968), Industrial Research and Technological Innovation: An Econometric Analysis.New York: W. W. Norton and Co.
26.
McCardleKevin (1985), “Information Acquisition and the Adoption of New Technology,”Management Science, 31(11), 1372–89.
27.
MeadeNigel (1984), “The Use of Growth Curves in Forecasting Market Development: A Review and Appraisal,”Journal of Forecasting, 3(4), 429–51.
28.
MorrisonDonald G. (1969), “On the Interpretation of Discriminant Analysis,”Journal of Marketing Research, 6(May), 156–63.
29.
OrenShmuel S., and SchwartzRick G. (1988), “Diffusion of New Products in Risk-Sensitive Markets,”Journal of Forecasting, 7(October-December), 273–87.
30.
ReinganumJennifer F. (1981), “On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game-Theoretic Approach,”Review of Economic Studies, 48, 395–405.
31.
ReinganumJennifer F. (1983), “Technology Adoption Under Imperfect Information,”Bell Journal of Economics, 14, 57–69.
32.
RobertsonThomas S., and GatignonHubert (1986), “Competitive Effects on Technology Diffusion,”Journal of Marketing, 50(July), 1–12.
33.
RobertsonThomas S., and WindYoram (1980), “Organizational Psychographics and Innovativeness,”Journal of Consumer Research,1(June), 24–31.
34.
RogersEverett M. (1983), Diffusion of Innovations.New York, The Free Press.
35.
RomeoAnthony A. (1975), “Interindustry and Interfirm Differences in the Rate of Diffusion of an Innovation,”Review of Economics and Statistics, 57, 311–19.
36.
RoseNancy L., and JoskowPaul L. (1990), “The Diffusion of New Technologies: Evidence From the Electric Utility Industry,”Rand Journal of Economics, 21(3), 354–73.
37.
SchmidtPeter, and WitteAnn D. (1989), “Predicting Criminal Recidivism Using ‘Split Population’ Survival Time Models,”Journal of Econometrics, 40, 141–59.
38.
SinhaRajiv K. (1989), “Covariance Structure and Proportional Hazard Specifications for Analyzing the Diffusion of Managerial Innovations,” unpublished PhD thesis, The Smeal College of Business Administration, Pennsylvania State University.
39.
SinhaRajiv K., and SharmaSunil (1990), “A Proportional Hazard Specification for Grouped Diffusion Data,” Working Paper No. 1/90, Institute for the Study of Business Markets, Pennsylvania State University.
40.
VilcassimNaufel, and JainDipak C. (1991), “Modeling Purchase Timing and Brand-Switching Behavior Incorporating Explanatory Variables and Unobserved Heterogeneity,”Journal of Marketing Research, 28(February), 29–41.