When consumers are exposed to pricing and promotional activity by frequently purchased packaged goods, they may develop expectations that are used as points of reference in evaluating future activity. The authors build a model to test for the presence of these reference effects on brand choice behavior. The approach differs from previous research in two ways: (1) the model includes reference effects of promotion in addition to reference effects of price and (2) a threshold model is introduced to capture the formation of the consumer's promotional reference point. The authors calibrate a model of brand choice using IRI scanner panel data on ground coffee. The findings suggest that promotional activity has significant reference effects on consumer response.
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