A model is offered for conditioning a forecast during periods when a time series exhibits atypical behavior. The model is based on a Bayesian approach, requiring the assessment of a probability distribution to the proportionate change believed to result from the impending atypical situation.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
BrownRobert G.Statistical Forecasting for Inventory Control.New York: McGraw-Hill, 1959.
2.
BrownRobert G.Smoothing, Forecasting, and Prediction of Discrete Time Series.Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1963.
3.
BuzzellRobert D. and SlaterCharles C. “Decision Theory and Marketing Management,” Journal of Marketing, 26 (July 1962), 7–17.
4.
ChurchmanC. West. Predictions and Optimal Decisions.Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1961.
5.
EnisBen M. and BroomCharles L.Marketing Decisions: A Bayesian Approach.Scranton, Pa.: Educational Publishers, 1971.
6.
EnrickNorbert L.Market and Sales Forecasting: A Quantitative Approach.San Francisco: Chandler, 1969.
7.
GreenPaul E. and TullDonald S.Research for Marketing Decisions.Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1966.
8.
HarperMarionJr. “A New Profession to Aid Marketing Management,” Journal of Marketing, 25 (January 1961), 1–7.
9.
HowardRonald A. “Decision Analysis: Applied Decision Theory,” Proceedings. Fourth International Conference on Operational Research, 1966, 2-1–2-18.
10.
HowardRonald A. “The Science of Decision Making,” working paper, Institute in Engineering-Economic Systems, Stanford University, 1968.
11.
MendenhallWilliam and ReinmuthJames E.Statistics for Management and Economics.Belmont, Calif.: Duxbury, 1971.
12.
ReinmuthJames E. “Probability Assessment for a Continuous State Variable,” working paper, College of Business Administration, University of Oregon, 1970.
13.
SchlaiferRobert. Analysis of Decisions under Uncertainty.New York: McGraw-Hill, 1969.
14.
StrassmanPaul A. “Forecasting Considerations in Design of Management Information Systems,” Management Accounting, 46 (February 1965), 27–40.
15.
SuitsDaniel B. “Forecasting and Analysis with an Econometric Model,” American Economic Review, 52 (March 1962), 104–32.
16.
ThielHenri. Economic Forecasts and Policy, second edition. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1961.
17.
TullDonald S. and AlbaumGerald. “Decision Processes and the Value of Information,” Oregon Business Review, 30 (April 1971), 1–3.
18.
WhitemanIrvin R. “Improved Forecasting Through Feedback,” Journal of Marketing, 30 (April 1966), 45–51.
19.
WinklerRobert L. “The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62 (September 1967), 776–800.
20.
WintersPeter R. “Forecasting Sales by Exponential Weighted Moving Averages,” Management Science, 6 (April 1960), 324–42.
