This article describes a field experiment which uses the Delphi Process to assign subjective probabilities to the set of possible demand levels for a company's product. The method is validated by the use of questions to which the “correct” answers are known.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AdelsonMarvin, et al. “Planning Education for the Future: Comments on a Pilot Study,” American Behavioral Scientist, 10 (March 1967), 1–12; 21–31.
2.
BrownBernice B.Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts.Santa Monica: The Rand Corporation, 1968.
3.
BrownRex V. “Assessing the Accuracy of Estimates: A Personalist Approach,” paper presented at the Conference of the American Statistical Association, 1969.
4.
CampbellR. “A Methodological Study of the Utilization of Experts in Business Forecasting,” unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of California at Los Angeles, 1966.
5.
DalkeyNorman C.The Delphi Method: An Experimental Study of Group Opinion.Santa Monica: The Rand Corporation, 1969.
6.
DalkeyNorman C. and HelmerO.An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts.Santa Monica: The Rand Corporation, 1962.
7.
De FinettiBruno. “Foresight: Its Logical Laws, Its Subjective Sources,” translated by KybrugHenry E.Jr., KybrugHenry E. and SmokierHoward E., eds., Studies in Subjective Probability.New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1964.
8.
GreenPaul E. “Bayesian Decision Theory in Pricing Strategy,” Journal of Marketing, 27 (January 1963), 5–14.
9.
HelmerOlaf. Social Technology.Santa Monica: The Rand Corporation, 1965.
10.
HelmerOlaf. Analyses of the Future.Santa Monica: The Rand Corporation, 1967.
11.
RobertsHarry V. “Bayesian Statistics in Marketing,” Journal of Marketing, 27 (January 1963), 1–4.
12.
RobertsHarry V. “Statistical Inference and Decision,” unpublished paper, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, 1966.
13.
WinklerRobert L. “The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62 (September 1967), 776–81.
14.
WinklerRobert L. “The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62 (December 1967), 1105–6.
15.
WinklerRobert L. “The Consenses of Subjective Probability Distributions” Management Science, 15 (October 1968), 61–3.
