While the activity of marketing research can be fruitfully viewed within a statistical decision theoretic model, relatively little is known concerning the descriptive aspects of how people—managers or consumers—revise probabilities in the light of new information. This paper reports the results of a behavioral study in probability revision, and the implications of these findings for the operational use of decision theoretic concepts in prescriptive and descriptive choice-making models.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AlexanderR. S., “The Marketing Manager's Dilemma,” Journal of Marketing, 29 (April 1965), 18–21.
2.
BoydH. W.Jr., and BrittS. H., “Making Marketing Research More Effective by Using the Administrative Process,” Journal of Marketing Research, 2 (February 1965), 13–9.
3.
EdwardsWard, and PhillipsL. D., “Man as Transducer for Probabilities in Bayesian Command and Control Systems,” in Human Judgments and Optimality, ShellyM. W. and BryanG. L., eds. (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1964.)
4.
GreenP. E., “Uncertainty, Information and Marketing Decisions,” in Theory in Marketing, ReavisCox, WroeAlderson, and ShapiroS. J., eds. (Homewood, Ill.: Richard D. Irwin, 1964, 333–54.)
5.
GreenP. E., HalbertM. H., and MinasJ. S., “An Experiment in Information Buying,” Journal of Advertising Research, 4 (September 1964), 17–23.
6.
PetersW. S., “Utility, Uncertainty, and the Consumer-Buyer,” in Theory in Marketing, [4], 254–69.
7.
PrestonM. G., and BarattaPhilip, “An Experimental Study of the Auction-Value of An Uncertain Outcome,” American Journal of Psychology, 61 (1948) 183–93.
8.
RobertsH. V., “Bayesian Statistics in Marketing,” Journal of Marketing, 27 (January 1963), 1–4.
9.
SchlaiferRobert, Probability and Statistics for Business Decisions, New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., Inc., 1959.
10.
ShufordE. H., “Some Bayesian Learning Processes,” in Human Judgments and Optimality, [3], 127–52.
11.
ShufordE. H., “Percentage Estimation of Proportion as a Function of Element Type, Exposure Time and Task,” Journal of Experimental Psychology, 61 (1961), 430–36.
