How does leverage vary across different mediators? What influence does this variation have on mediation outcomes? Extant literature has equated mediation leverage with material power. Leverage, however, is context dependent and comprised of two dimensions: capability and credibility. Capability leverage is a function of economic resources and power, while credibility leverage derives influence from historical and cultural ties that bolster a mediator’s contextual knowledge of a conflict. I hypothesize that mediators with capability leverage are more likely to achieve short-term success, whereas mediators with credibility leverage generate more durable settlements. I quantitatively test the hypotheses using civil war mediation attempts from 1989 to 2006. I find that capability leverage does indeed contribute to the achievement of short-term success; credibility leverage, however, generates a more durable peace. The results demonstrate the importance of understanding mediation leverage as a context-dependent concept and highlight the potential long-term benefits of softer forms of mediation.
AsalVictorPateAmyWilkenfeldJonathan. 2008. “Minorities at Risk Organizational Behavior Data and Codebook, Version 9-2008.” Accessed March 1, 2013. http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/mar/data.asp.
2.
BeardsleyKyle. 2008. “Agreement without Peace? International Mediation and Time Inconsistency Problems.” American Journal of Political Science52 (4): 723–40.
3.
BeardsleyKyle. 2009. “Intervention without Leverage: Explaining the Prevalence of Weak Mediators.” International Interactions35 (3): 272–97.
4.
BeardsleyKyle. 2011. The Mediation Dilemma. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
5.
BeardsleyKyle C.QuinnDavid M.BiswasBidishaWilkenfeldJonathan. 2006. “Mediation Style and Crisis Outcomes.” Journal of Conflict Resolution50 (1): 58–86.
6.
BercovitchJacobTheodore AnagnosonJ.WilleDonnette L.. 1991. “Some Conceptual Issues and Empirical Trends in the Study of Successful Mediation in International Relations.” Journal of Peace Research28 (1): 7–17.
7.
BercovitchJacobGartnerScott Sigmund. 2006. “Empirical Studies in International Mediation: Introduction to a Special Issue of International Interactions.” International Interactions32 (4): 319–28.
8.
BercovitchJacobHoustonAllison. 2000. “Why Do They Do It Like This? An Analysis of the Factors Influencing Mediation Behavior in International Conflicts.” Journal of Conflict Resolution44 (2): 170–202.
9.
Box-SteffensmeierJanet M.JonesBradford S.. 2004. Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists. New York: Cambridge University Press.
10.
CarnevalePeter J.2002. “Mediating from Strength.” In Studies in International Mediation, edited byBercovitchJacob, 25–40. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
11.
CedermanLars-ErikMinBrianWimmerAndreas. 2009. “Ethnic Power Relations Dataset.” American Sociological Review74 (2): 316–37.
CrescenziMark J. C.KaderaKelly M.MitchellSara McLaughlinThyneClayton L.. 2011. “A Supply Side Theory of Mediation.” International Studies Quarterly55 (4): 1069–94.
14.
DeRouenKarlBercovitchJacobPospiesznaPaulina. 2011. “Introducing the Civil Wars Mediation (CWM) Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research48 (5): 663–72.
15.
FavrettoKatja. 2009. “Should Peacemakers Take Sides? Major Power Mediation, Coercion, and Bias.” American Political Science Review103 (2): 248–63.
16.
FortnaVirginia Page. 2004. “Does Peacekeeping Keep Peace? International Intervention and the Duration of Peace after Civil War.” International Studies Quarterly48 (2): 269–92.
17.
FortnaVirginia Page. 2008. Does Peacekeeping Work? Shaping Belligerents’ Choices after Civil War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
18.
GartnerScott Sigmund. 2011. “Signs of Trouble: Regional Organization Mediation and Civil War Agreement Durability.” Journal of Politics73 (2): 380–90.
19.
GartnerScott Sigmund. 2013. “Deceptive Results: Why Mediation Appears to Fail but Actually Succeeds.” Penn State Journal of Law and International Affairs2:27–182.
20.
GartnerScott Sigmund. 2014. “The Influence of Directive Strategies on Settlement Duration.” International Negotiation19 (2): 201–20.
21.
GartnerScott SigmundBercovitchJacob. 2006. “Overcoming Obstacles to Peace: The Contribution of Mediation to Short-lived Conflict Settlements.” International Studies Quarterly50 (4): 819–40.
22.
GentStephen E.ShannonMegan. 2011. “Bias and the Effectiveness of Third-party Conflict Management Mechanisms.” Conflict Management and Peace Science28 (2): 124–44.
23.
GreigJ. MichaelReganPatrick M.. 2008. “When Do They Say Yes? An Analysis of the Willingness to Offer and Accept Mediation in Civil Wars.” International Studies Quarterly52 (4): 759–81.
24.
HartzellCaroline A.HoddieMatthew. 2015. “The Art of the Possible: Power Sharing and Post-civil War Democracy.” World Politics67 (1): 37–71.
25.
HestonAlanSummersRobertAtenBettina. 2002. Penn World Table. Philadelphia: Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania.
26.
HögbladhStina. 2011. “Peace Agreements 1975-2011: Updating the UCDP Peace Agreement Dataset.” In States in Armed Conflict 2011, edited byTherésePetterssonThemnérLotta. Uppsala, Sweden: Department of Peace and Conflict Research Report 99, Uppsala University. Accessed January 15, 2013. http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/ucdp_peace_agreement_dataset/.
MasonT. DavidFettPatrick J.. 1996. “How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach.” Journal of Conflict Resolution40 (4): 546–68.
34.
MelinMolly M.2011. “The Impact of State Relationships on If, When, and How Conflict Management Occurs1.” International Studies Quarterly55 (3): 691–715.
35.
MelinMolly M.SvenssonIsak. 2009. “Incentives for Talking: Accepting Mediation in International and Civil Wars.” International Interactions35 (3): 249–71.
36.
MenningaElizabeth J.2013. “Bias and Balance in Civil War Mediation.” Presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, San Francisco, CA.
37.
MenningaElizabeth J.2014. “Multiparty Mediation: Identifying the Characteristics of the Dream Team.” Presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
38.
MitchellSara McLaughlinHenselPaul R.. 2007. “International Institutions and Compliance with Agreements.” American Journal of Political Science51 (4): 721–37.
NyeJoseph S.2004. “Soft Power and American Foreign Policy.” Political Science Quarterly119 (2): 255–70.
41.
PrincenThomas. 1992. Intermediaries in International Conflict. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
42.
QuinnDavidWilkenfeldJonathanEralpPelinAsalVictorMclauchlinTheodore. 2013. “CrisisManagers but Not Conflict Resolvers: Mediating Ethnic Intrastate Conflict in Africa.” Conflict Management and Peace Science30 (4): 387–406.
43.
RubinJeffrey Z.1992. “International Mediation in Context.” In Mediation in International Relations: Multiple Approaches to Conflict Management, edited byBercovitchJacobRubinJeffrey Z., 249–72. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
44.
SavunBurcu. 2008. “Information, Bias, and Mediation Success.” International Studies Quarterly52 (1): 25–47.
45.
SiniverAsaf. 2006. “Power, Impartiality and Timing: Three Hypotheses on Third Party Mediation in the Middle East.” Political Studies54 (4): 806–26.
46.
SmithAlastairStamAllan. 2003. “Mediation and Peacekeeping in a Random Walk Model of Civil and Interstate War.” International Studies Review5 (4): 115–35.
SvenssonIsak. 2007a. “Bargaining, Bias and Peace Brokers: How Rebels Commit to Peace.” Journal of Peace Research44 (2): 177–94.
49.
SvenssonIsak. 2007b. “Mediation with Muscles or Minds? Exploring Power Mediators and Pure Mediators in Civil Wars.” International Negotiation12 (2): 229–48.
50.
ToftMonica Duffy. 2004. The Geography of Ethnic Violence: Identity, Interests, and the Indivisibility of Territory. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
51.
TouvalSaadia. 1985. “The Context of Mediation.” Negotiation Journal1 (4): 373–78.
52.
UCDP (Uppsala Conflict Data Program). 2009. “UCDP Database Categorical Variables 1989-2008, Uppsala Data Program.” Accessed March 15, 2013. www.ucdp.uu.se
53.
WallensteenPeterSvenssonIsak. 2014. “Talking Peace: International Mediation in Armed Conflicts.” Journal of Peace Research51 (2): 315–27.
54.
WalterBarbara F.2009. “Bargaining Failures and Civil War.” Annual Review of Political Science12:243–61.
55.
WilkenfeldJonathanYoungKathleenAsalVictorQuinnDavid. 2003. “Mediating International Crises: Cross-national and Experimental Perspectives.” Journal of Conflict Resolution47 (3): 279–301.
ZartmanI. William. 2001. “The Timing of Peace Initiatives: Hurting Stalemates and Ripe Moments.” The Global Review of Ethnopolitics1 (1): 8–18.
58.
ZartmanI. WilliamTouvalSaadia. 1985. “International Mediation: Conflict Resolution and Power Politics.” Journal of Social Issues41 (2): 27–45.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
