Why are some territories ravaged by intense levels of criminal violence while others are relatively peaceful? This research contributes to an understanding of the escalation and diffusion of drug violence in Mexico from 2000 to 2010 by formalizing the interactions between the state and organized criminals and by relying on a large database of event data containing more than 1.6 million observations. Results based on spatial econometrics provide evidence of the spatial diffusion of violence. In congruence with the theoretical expectations, the results show that the disruptive effect of law enforcement is an important catalyst for the intensification of violence between criminal organizations, especially when deployed in areas hosting a high concentration of criminal groups. This relationship holds for a broad menu of violent and nonviolent law enforcement tactics. The analysis also reveals that other broadly held factors (international, geographic, and socioeconomic characteristics) have a modest effect on the dynamics of drug-related violence.
AndreasPeter. 1998. “The Political Economy of Narco-corruption in Mexico.” Current History97:160–65.
2.
AndreasPeter. 2010. Sex, Drugs, and Body Counts: The Politics of Numbers in Global Crime and Conflict. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
3.
AngristJoshuaKuglerAdriana. 2008. “Rural Windfall or the New Resource Curse? Coca, Income and Civil Conflict in Colombia.” The Review of Economics and Statistics90 (2): 191–215.
AstorgaLuis. 2005. El siglo de las drogas: el narcotráfico, del porfiriato al nuevo milenio. Mexico City, Mexico: Plaza y Janés.
7.
BadingerHaraldEggerPeter. 2011. “Estimation of Higher-order Spatial Autoregressive Cross-section Models with Heteroscedastic Disturbances.” Regional Science90 (1): 213–35.
8.
Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. 2012. “Annual Firearms Manufacturers and Export Report.” Accessed May 7, 2015. http://www.atf.gov/statistics/.
CollierPaulHoefflerAnke E.. 2004. “Greed and Grievance in Civil War.” Oxford Economic Papers56 (4): 563–95.
13.
Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política de Desarrollo Social. 2012. “Medición de la Pobreza por Municipio.” Accessed May 7, 2015. http://web.coneval.gob.mx.
14.
CorneliusWayne A.ShirkDavid A.. 2007. Reforming the Administration of Justice in Mexico. Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame Press.
15.
CosciaMichelleRiosViridiana. 2012. “Knowing Where and How Criminal Organizations Operate Using Web Content.” In CIKM’12. ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management. Maui, Hawaii. Accessed May 7, 2015. http://www.gov.harvard.edu/files/CosciaRios2012_WhereHowCriminalsOperate.pdf.
16.
DavenportChristian. 2009. Media Bias, Perspective, and State Repression: The Black Panther Party. New York: Cambridge University Press.
17.
DavenportChristianBallPatrick. 2002. “Views to a Kill: Exploring the Implications of Source Selection in the Case of Guatemalan State Terror, 1977–1995.” Journal of Conflict Resolution46 (3): 427–50.
DonnellyRobert A.ShirkDavid A.. 2010. Police and Public Security in Mexico. San Diego, CA: Trans-border Institute.
20.
DubeArindrajitDubeOeindrilaGarcia-PonceOmar. 2013. “Cross-border Spillover: U.S. Gun Laws and Violence in Mexico.” American Political Science Review107 (3): 397–417.
21.
Duran-MartinezAngelica. 2013. “Criminals, Cops, and Politicians: Dynamics of Drug Violence in Colombia and Mexico.” PhD Dissertation in Political Science, Brown University, Providence, RI.
22.
FajnzylberPabloLedermanDanielLoayzaNorman. 2000. “Crime and Victimization: An Economic Perspective.” Economía1 (1): 219–78.
23.
FajnzylberPabloLedermanDanielLoayzaNorman. 2002. “Inequality and Violent Crime.” Journal of Law and Economics45 (1): 1–40.
HegreHavardEllingsenTanjaGatesScottGleditschNils Petter. 2001. “Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992.” The American Political Science Review95 (1): 33–48.
27.
IngramMatthew C. 2014. “Community Resilience to Violence: Local Schools, Regional Economies, and Homicide in Mexico’s Municipalities.” In Building Resilient Communities in Mexico, edited by ShirkDavidWoodDuncanOlsonEric, 25–62. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, University of San Diego, Justice in Mexico Project. Accessed May 7, 2015. http://justiceinmexico.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/resilient_communities_mexico.pdf.
INEGI (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). 2011b. “Sistema Estatal y Municipal de Bases de Datos.” Accessed May 7, 2015. http://sc.inegi.org.mx/sistemas/cobdem/.
JiaHaoSkaperdasStergiosVaidyaSamarth. 2013. “Contest Functions: Theoretical Foundations and Issues in Estimation.” International Journal of Industrial Organization, 31(3): 211–22.
32.
KilmerBeauCaulkinsJonathan P.BondBrittany M.ReuterPeter H.. 2010. “Reducing Drug Trafficking Revenues and Violence in Mexico. Would Legalizing Marijuana in California Help?” RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA. Accessed May 7, 2015. http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP325.html.
33.
LawsonChappell H.2002. Building the Fourth Estate. Democratization and the Rise of a Free Press in Mexico. Berkeley: University of California Press.
34.
LeetaruKalevSchrodtPhilip A.. 2013. “GDELT: Global Data on Events, Location and Tone, 1979-2012.” Paper presented at the International Studies Association meeting, San Francisco, April 2013. Accessed May 7, 2015. http://data.gdeltproject.org/documentation/ISA.2013.GDELT.pdf.
35.
MadrazoAlejandroGuerreroÁngela. 2012. “Más Caro el Caldo que las Albóndigas.” Nexos. Accessed May 7, 2015. http://www.nexos.com.mx/?p=15085.
36.
MilloGiovanniPirasGianfranco. 2012. “splm: Spatial Panel Data Models in R.” Journal of Statistical Software47 (1): 1–38.
MoranPatrick A. P.1950. “Notes on Continuous Stochastic Phenomena.” Biometrika37 (1): 17–23.
39.
MorrisStephen D.2012. “Corruption, Drug Trafficking, and Violence in Mexico.” Brown Journal of World Affairs18 (2): 29–43.
40.
Office of National Drug Control Policy. 2004. Technical Report for the Price and Purity of Illicit Drugs: 1981 through the Second Quarter of 2003. Technical Report. Washington, DC: The Executive Office of the President, Office of National Drug Control Policy.
41.
OsorioJavier. 2012. “Las causas estructurales de la violencia: Evaluación de algunas hipótesis.” In Las Bases Sociales del Crimen Organizado y la Violencia en México, edited by Antonio Aguilar RiveraJosé, 73–132. Mexico City, Mexico: Centro de Investigación y Estudios en Seguridad, Secretaría de Seguridad Pública. Accessed May 7, 2015. http://www.cies.gob.mx/pdf/Bases_Sociales_Crimen_Organizado_Mexico.pdf.
42.
OsorioJavier. 2013. “Hobbes on Drugs: Understanding Drug Violence in Mexico.” Doctoral Dissertation in Political Science, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN. Accessed May 7, 2015. http://www.javierosorio.net//!research/c240r.
PoiréAlejandroMartínezMaría Teresa. 2011. “La caída de los capos no multiplica la violencia El caso de Nacho Coronel.” Nexos. Accessed May 7, 2015. http://www.nexos.com.mx/?p=14262.
46.
RiosViridiana. 2012a. “How Government Structure Encourages Criminal Violence. The Causes of Mexico’s Drug War.” PhD Dissertation in Political Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA. Accessed May 7, 2015. http://www.gov.harvard.edu/files/Rios_PhDDissertation.pdf.
47.
RiosViridiana. 2012b. “Why Did Mexico Become So Violent? A Self-reinforcing Violent Equilibrium Caused by Competition and Enforcement.” Trends in Organized Crime15:1–18.
SeyboltTaylor B.AronsonJay D.FischhoffBaruch, eds. 2013. Counting Civilian Casualties: An Introduction to Recording and Estimating Nonmilitary Deaths in Conflict. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
53.
ShelleyL.2001. “Corruption and Organized Crime in Mexico in the Post-PRI Transition.” Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice17 (3): 213–31.
54.
ShirkDavid A.2010. Drug Violence in Mexico. Data and Analysis from 2001–2009. Technical Report. San Diego, CA: Trans-Border Institute, Joan B. Kroc School of Peace Studies, University of San Diego.
55.
ShirkDavid A.WallmanJoel. 2015. “Understanding Mexico’s Drug Violence.” Journal of Conflict Resolution59 (8): 1348–76.
56.
SkaperdasStergios. 2002. “Warlord Competition.” Journal of Peace Research39 (4): 435–46.
57.
SnyderRichardDuran-MartinezAngelica. 2009. “Does Illegality Breed Violence? Drug Trafficking and State-sponsored Protection Rackets.” Crime, Law, and Social Change52:253–73.
58.
ToblerWaldo. 1970. “A Computer Movie Simulating Urban Growth in the Detroit Region.” Economic Geography46 (2): 234–40.
TullockG.1980. “Efficient Rent Seeking.” In Toward a Theory of Rent Seeking Society, edited by BuchananM.TollisonR.TullockG., 97–112. College Station: Texas A&M University Press.
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
