Japan’s Counterstrike Capability: Pushing the Limits of a Defense-Oriented Policy

Abstract

This analysis explores the most significant change in Japan’s defense policy since the end of World War II, based on Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government publication, in late 2022, of three policy documents proposing to expand the country’s military capabilities by increasing military spending over a 5-year period. The most remarkable proposition is to acquire a counterstrike capability, consisting of long-range cruise missiles to strike deep into a potential adversary’s territory. Contrary to arguments pointing out these plans represent an “unprecedented” transformation of Japan’s defense policy since 1946, they are rather the logical consequence of a gradual, but significant, change that has been occurring since at least a couple of decades. These recent proposals are explored within the wider debate about whether Japan should continue pursuing a pacifist posture, or to adopt a more assertive stance in response to a more threatening international environment.