Revolutionary struggle and its diffusion: A configurational analysis of the 2011 Arab Uprisings

Abstract

Researchers of revolutionary waves argue that early cases diffuse mobilization to later cases which are, compared with their forerunners, disadvantaged as they have fewer favorable antecedent conditions and less strategic protagonists. Using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) and comparative case studies, I examine the 2011 Arab Uprisings in order to ask: (1) Why does revolutionary struggle (mass mobilization to topple an existing regime) in a given region emerge in and then diffuse to some countries but not others? and (2) Why do the struggles vary in form—that is, in terms of social composition, action types, and demands? My study finds three configurations of antecedent conditions that favor the emergence of revolutionary struggle. The three “paths” follow a two-sided narrowing pattern: each successive path has fewer expected favorable conditions and yields a less expansive form of struggle. These paths account for the six national cases of “revolutionary struggle” in the region, and co-occur with one path leading to mass reformist struggle and several other paths leading to relative quiescence. Overall, the article demonstrates how specific antecedent conditions combine in causal ways amid the temporal unfolding of a revolutionary wave. Furthermore, by identifying the narrowing pattern of revolutionary diffusion, the article suggests that later struggles essentially reflect locally informed strategic rationales, not irrational emulation or externally driven emergent processes, as posited by previous studies.