Liquified Natural Gas Development is a Risky Strategy to Diversify Canada's Exports

Abstract

The US's imposition of tariffs on Canada has lent urgency to diversification of Canada's exports, including oil and gas. While investors have yet to propose another oil pipeline, they have initiated multiple liquified natural gas (LNG) projects. I employ four criteria – export diversification, climate change mitigation, Indigenous reconciliation, and value for public money – to compare two policy packages, the status quo (LNG expansion) and various restrictions on LNG development. While LNG expansion promises export diversification in the near term, that comes at a cost of undermining both Canada's ability to meet its Paris Agreement targets and global climate action and risks to public investments over the longer term. LNG development promises greater financial benefits to some Nations, but by sacrificing other Nations’ right to free, prior, and informed consent. I conclude that an economic future predicated on fossil fuel exports is risky, both for Canada's prosperity and humankind.