Growth Performance and Forecasts of Exports of Leather Industry in Punjab

Abstract

The present paper aims at measuring the performance of exports of leather industry by computing yearly and compound annual growth rates, making short-term forecasts and measurement of long-term trends. Long-term trends in exports were captured by fitting ten distinct functional forms and equation of best fit was selected on the basis of yardsticks mentioned in the econometric literature. Forecasts of exports were prepared for the lead-time of five years by using Double Exponential Smoothing. Econometric benchmarks were used to test reliability and adequacy of the fitted model. The findings have been supplemented with necessary recommendations.