The Last Straw: Sudden Shifts in Substance Use During the First 6 Months After Prison Release

Abstract

Substance use during reentry is a complex and dynamic phenomenon. Although using substance and returning to prison are what post-incarcerated individuals are determined to avoid, stressors such as financial hardship, family estrangement, and other challenges can put them at an elevated risk of substance use. This study examined whether substance use during reentry is best characterized as a cusp catastrophe process in which substance use, rather than steady escalation, exhibits a shift from stable increase to a sudden, catastrophic increase when certain situation occurs. Longitudinal data of post-incarcerated adult males were leveraged to answer the research question. Results indicated that cusp catastrophe model accounted for ten times more variance in substance use than a linear model. Financial difficulties and mental health emerged as significant bifurcation factors, propelling individuals “over the edge” into a sudden escalation of use. In contrast, family bonds, neighborhood environment, and social isolation functioned as stable background factors that exerted linear effects on substance use. Findings suggest that substance use during reentry is marked by abrupt escalation rather than steady, moderate increases. Prevention efforts should therefore prioritize mitigating the acute stressors that trigger the sudden escalation of substance use among post-incarcerated individuals.