Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Abstract

This study explores the socio-economic factors influencing criminality in 44 upper-middle-income nations (UMIN) from 2000 to 2021. While previous research has focused on high- and low-income nations, UMIN remain understudied despite their unique challenges. Using panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling and principal component analysis (PCA) to create a composite governance index, the findings show that GDP growth, gender parity, and governance quality significantly reduce crime in the long term. Conversely, urbanization, income inequality, and inflation increase crime. Short-term effects are largely insignificant, except for gender parity, which paradoxically show a positive association, possibly reflecting transitional societal dynamics. These results emphasize the need for integrated policies that target governance improvement, promote sustainable development, and enhance urban planning to effectively reduce crime.

Keywords

criminality sustainable development urbanization education governance

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Ahmad

Masron

Barawi

M. H.

Junaini

S. N.

Kimura

Rainis

Jamian

M. A. H.

(2025). Between day and night: Deciphering the nexus of land use and property crime in Malaysia’s urban territories. Planning Practice & Research, 40, 1044–1078. https://doi.org/10.1080/02697459.2025.2516540

Ahmed

W. M. A.

(2020). Stock market reactions to domestic sentiment: Panel CS-ARDL evidence. Research in International Business and Finance, 54, Article 101240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101240

Aransiola

T. J.

Justus

Ceccato

(2024). Economic growth, income inequality and lethal violence in developed countries. EconomiA, 26(1), 127–146. https://doi.org/10.1108/econ-10-2023-0163

Baron

E. J.

Hyman

Vasquez

(2024). Public school funding, school quality, and adult crime. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1–46. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01452

Becker

G. S.

(1968). Crime and punishment: An economic approach. Journal of Political Economy, 76(2), 169–217. https://doi.org/10.1086/259394

Bell

Costa

Machin

(2022). Why does education reduce crime? Journal of Political Economy, 130(3), 732–765. https://doi.org/10.1086/717895

Bourguignon

(2015). The globalization of inequality. Princeton University Press.

Britto

D. G. C.

Pinotti

Sampaio

(2022). The effect of job loss and unemployment insurance on crime in Brazil. Econometrica, 90(4), 1393–1423. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA18984

Cao

Zhang

(2017). Governance and regional variation of homicide rates: Evidence from cross-national data. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 61(1), 25–45. https://doi.org/10.1177/0306624x15587278

10.

Chandio

A. A.

Gokmenoglu

K. K.

Ahmad

(2021). Addressing the long- and short-run effects of climate change on major food crops production in Turkey. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(37), 51657–51673. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14358-8

11.

Chandra Voumik

Sultana

(2022). Impact of urbanization, industrialization, electrification and renewable energy on the environment in BRICS: Fresh evidence from novel CS-ARDL model. Heliyon, 8(11), e11457. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e11457

12.

Chen

Luo

Zang

Kinoshita

(2024). Exploring the complex association between urban form and crime: Evidence from 1,486 U.S. counties. Journal of Urban Management, 13(3), 482–496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jum.2024.05.008

13.

Çuhadar

Cafrı Açcı

(2021). Unemployment or Inflation? What Does the Misery Index Say about the Causes of Crime? ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 48(2), 185–200. https://doi.org/https://hdl.handle.net/11511/96796

14.

Dahbura

J. N. M.

(2018). The short-term impact of crime on school enrollment and school choice: Evidence from El Salvador. EconomiA, 18(2), 121–145.

15.

Dritsakis

Gkanas

(2009). The effect of socio-economic determinants on crime rates: An empirical research in the case of greece with cointegration analysis. International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research, 2, 51–64.

16.

Ehrlich

(1973). Participation in illegitimate activities: A theoretical and empirical investigation. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 521–565. https://doi.org/10.1086/260058

17.

Fajnzylber

Lederman

Loayza

(2002). What causes violent crime? European Economic Review, 46(7), 1323–1357. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(01)00096-4

18.

Fioroni

Lavezzi

A. M.

Trovato

(2025). Organized crime, corruption, and economic growth. Journal of Regional Science, 65(2), 535–560. https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12751

19.

Fleisher

B. M.

(1966). The effect of income on delinquency. The American Economic Review, 56(1/2), 118–137.

20.

Goede

(2013). Transnational organized crime (TOC) and the relationship to good governance in the Caribbean: Transnational organized crime democracy (TOCD). International Journal of Development Issues, 12(3), 253–270. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijdi-01-2013-0008

21.

Goulas

Zervoyianni

(2015). Economic growth and crime: Is there an asymmetric relationship? Economic Modelling, 49, 286–295. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.04.014

22.

Habibullah

M. S.

H.Din

Abdul Hamid

(2016). Good governance and crime rates in Malaysia. International Journal of Social Economics, 43(3), 308–320. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijse-05-2014-0096

23.

Hadri

(2002). Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data. The Econometrics Journal, 3(2), 148–161. https://doi.org/10.1111/1368-423x.00043

24.

Hojman

D. E.

(2004). Inequality, unemployment and crime in Latin American cities. Crime, Law and Social Change, 41(1), 33–51. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CRIS.0000015327.30140.8d

25.

K. S.

Pesaran

M. H.

Shin

(2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7

26.

Jonck

Goujon

Testa

M. R.

Kandala

(2015). Education and crime engagement in South Africa: A national and provincial perspective. International Journal of Educational Development, 45, 141–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2015.10.002

27.

Juárez

N. C.

Urdal

Vadlamannati

K. C.

(2022). The significance of age structure, education, and youth unemployment for explaining subnational variation in violent youth crime in Mexico. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 39(1), 49–73. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894220946324

28.

Kao

(1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00023-2

29.

Levin

Lin

C.-F.

James Chu

C.-S.

(2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7

30.

Lima Campos

Cysne

R. P.

(2025). A cross-sectional panel ARDL approach to fiscal sustainability analysis. Journal of Applied Economics, 28(1), Article 2464505. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2025.2464505

31.

Ludwig

Schnepel

(2025). Does nothing stop a bullet like a job? The effects of income on crime. Annual Review of Criminology, 8, 269–289. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-criminol-111523-122257

32.

Chen

Zeng

(2025). Dangerous density: Urban density and the criminalization of China. International Review of Economics & Finance, 99, Article 104025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2025.104025

33.

Machin

Sandi

(2025). Crime and education. Annual Review of Economics, 17, 241–260. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-090324-035606

34.

Maddala

G. S.

(2000). Cross-country growth regressions: Problems of heterogeneity, stability and interpretation. Applied Economics, 32(5), 635–642. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368400322534

35.

Magaloni

Diaz-Cayeros

(2018). Violent crime as a global development challenge: Causes and menu of interventions1 (White Pap.). World Bank.

36.

Mata

P. N.

Ali

Lucas

J. L.

Martins

J. N.

Zafar

(2023). Cross-sectional ARDL analysis to access the impact of stressful living environment and extreme weather events on youth’s education. Economies, 11(6), 170.

37.

Neumayer

(2003). Good policy can lower violent crime: Evidence from a cross-national panel of homicide rates, 1980–97. Journal of Peace Research, 40(6), 619–640. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433030406001

38.

Nguyen

H. T. M.

(2019). Do more educated neighbourhoods experience less property crime? Evidence from Indonesia. International Journal of Educational Development, 64, 27–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2018.12.005

39.

Noorishah

B. S.

Dayang

H. A.

Ali . (2022). The economic determinants of crime rate in 7 selected countries: A panel data analysis approach. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 12(1), 44–53. https://doi.org/10.55493/5004.v12i1.4439

40.

Nurhandayani Imam

W. S.

(2025). The effect of income inequality, unemployment, and urbanization on crime index in 5 ASEAN countries. Talenta Conference Series: Local Wisdom, Social, and Arts (LWSA), 8(1), 400–411. https://doi.org/10.32734/lwsa.v8i1.2411

41.

Pare

P.-P.

Felson

(2014). Income inequality, poverty and crime across nations. The British Journal of Sociology, 65(3), 434–458. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-4446.12083

42.

Pedroni

(2004). Panel cointegration: Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the ppp hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20(3), 597–625. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466604203073

43.

Phillips

Land

K. C.

(2012). The link between unemployment and crime rate fluctuations: An analysis at the county, state, and national levels. Social Science Research, 41(3), 681–694. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2012.01.001

44.

Pillay

(2004). Corruption – the challenge to good governance: A South African perspective. International Journal of Public Sector Management, 17(7), 586–605. https://doi.org/10.1108/09513550410562266

45.

Raj

Kalluru

S. R.

(2023). Does crime impede economic growth? An evidence from India. Cogent Social Sciences, 9(1), Article 2196814. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2023.2196814

46.

Rennó Santos

Testa

Weiss

D. B.

(2021). Inflation and cross-national homicide: Assessing nonlinear and moderation effects across 65 countries, 1965–2015. International Criminal Justice Review, 31(2), 122–139. https://doi.org/10.1177/1057567720981624

47.

Rosenfeld

Vogel

(2023). Homicide, acquisitive crime, and inflation: A city-level longitudinal analysis. Crime & Delinquency, 69(1), 3–33. https://doi.org/10.1177/00111287211039994

48.

Rubasundram

G. A.

Rasiah

(2019). Corruption and good governance an analysis of ASEAN?s E-governance experience. Journal of Southeast Asian Economies, 36(1), 57–70.

49.

Şengül

Canbay

. (2025). Spatial analysis of the macroeconomic determinants of crime: Evidence from regions of Türkiye. Economic Systems, Article 101350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101350

50.

Soares

R. R.

Souza

(2025). Too much of a good thing: Accelerated growth and crime. Journal of Development Economics, 175, Article 103499. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103499

51.

Soeparno

W. S. I.

(2025). The effect of income inequality, unemployment, and urbanization on crime index in 5 ASEAN countries. Talenta Conference Series: Local Wisdom, Social, and Arts (LWSA).

52.

UNODC. (2023). Global study on homicide report 2023, homicide, sustainable development goals.

53.

Quddoos

M. U.

Khan

S. A. R.

Ahmad

M. M.

Janjua

L. R.

Amin

M. S.

Haseeb

(2023). Investigating the moderating impact of crime and corruption on the economic growth of Bangladesh: Fresh insights. International Area Studies Review, 26(2), 185–207. https://doi.org/10.1177/22338659221125696

Criminality Trends Through Socio-Economic Factors: A Two Decade Panel ARDL Analysis of Upper-Middle-Income Nations (2000–2021)

Abstract

Keywords

Get full access to this article

References