Criminality Trends Through Socio-Economic Factors: A Two Decade Panel ARDL Analysis of Upper-Middle-Income Nations (2000

Abstract

This study explores the socio-economic factors influencing criminality in 44 upper-middle-income nations (UMIN) from 2000 to 2021. While previous research has focused on high- and low-income nations, UMIN remain understudied despite their unique challenges. Using panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling and principal component analysis (PCA) to create a composite governance index, the findings show that GDP growth, gender parity, and governance quality significantly reduce crime in the long term. Conversely, urbanization, income inequality, and inflation increase crime. Short-term effects are largely insignificant, except for gender parity, which paradoxically show a positive association, possibly reflecting transitional societal dynamics. These results emphasize the need for integrated policies that target governance improvement, promote sustainable development, and enhance urban planning to effectively reduce crime.

Keywords

criminality sustainable development urbanization education governance

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Criminality Trends Through Socio-Economic Factors: A Two Decade Panel ARDL Analysis of Upper-Middle-Income Nations (2000–2021)

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