This article develops and tests a specific model of the role of diffusion as a determinant of the magnitude and direction of regime change, using a database covering the world from 1972 to 1996. The authors find that countries tend to change their regimes to match the average degree of democracy or nondemocracy found among their contiguous neighbors and that countries in the U.S. sphere of influence tended to become more democratic in the period examined. They also confirm that countries tend to follow the direction in which the majority of other countries in the world are moving. Their model builds on several findings in the diffusion literature but adds methodological improvements and includes more extensive controls for other variables that have been found to affect regime change—including levels of development, presidentialism, and regional differences—offering further support for some and challenging other findings of the regime change literature.
Beck, N. (2001). Time-Series-Cross-Section data: What have we learned in the past few years?Annual Review of Political Science, 4, 271-293.
2.
Beck, N., Katz, J., & Tucker, R. (1998, October). Taking time seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section analysis with a binary dependent variable. American Journal of Political Science, 42, 1260-1288.
3.
Bollen, K. A. (1991). Political democracy: Conceptual and measurement traps. In A. Inkeles (Ed.), On measuring democracy (pp. 3-20). New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction.
4.
Bollen, K. A. (1993, November). Liberal democracy: Validity and method factors in crossnational measures. American Journal of Political Science, 37, 1207-1230.
5.
Bollen, K., & Jackman, R. (1989, August). Democracy, stability, and dichotomies. American Sociological Review, 54, 612-621.
6.
Bollen, K., & Jackman, R. (1995, December). Income inequality and democratization revisited: Comment on Muller. American Sociological Review, 60, 983-989.
7.
Bollen, K. A., & Paxton, P. (2000, February). Subjective measures of liberal democracy. Comparative Political Studies, 33, 58-86.
8.
Breen, R. (1982). Regression models: Censored, sample selected, or truncated data (Sage University Paper Series, Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, No. 111). Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
9.
Burkhart, R., & Lewis-Beck, M. (1994, December). Comparative democracy: The economic development thesis. American Political Science Review, 88, 903-910.
10.
Coppedge, M.,& Reinicke, W. (1990, Spring). Ascale of polyarchy. Studies in Comparative and International Development, 25, 51-72.
11.
Elkins, Z. (2000, April). Gradations of democracy? Empirical tests of alternative conceptualizations. American Journal of Political Science, 44, 293-300.
12.
Franzese, R., & Hays, J. (2004, July). Empirical modeling strategies for spatial interdependence: Omitted-Variable vs. simultaneity biases. Paper presented at PolMeth 2004, Austin, Texas.
13.
Freedom House. (n.d.). Freedom in the world country ratings. Retrieved from http://www.freedomhouse.org/ratings/index.htm
14.
Gasiorowski, M.,& Power, T. (1997, April). Institutional design and democratic consolidation in the Third World. Comparative Political Studies, 30, 123-155.
15.
Gleditsch, K.,& Ward, M. (1997, June). Double take: A reexamination of democracy and autocracy in modern polities. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 41, 361-383.
16.
Gonick, L., & Rosh, R. (1988). The structural constraints of the world-economy on national political development. Comparative Political Studies, 21, 171-199.
17.
Hannan, M. T., & Carroll, G. (1981). Dynamics of formal political structure: An event-history analysis. American Sociological Review, 46, 19-35.
18.
Hanusheck, E., & Jackson, J. (1977). Statistical methods for social scientists. New York: Academic Press.
19.
Helliwell, J. (1994). Empirical linkages between democracy and economic growth. British Journal of Political Science, 24(2), 225-248.
20.
Huntington, S. (1968). Political order in changing societies. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
21.
Huntington, S. (1991). The third wave: Democratization in the late twentieth centuryNorman: University of Oklahoma Press.
22.
Kant, I. (1963). Perpetual peace. In L. W. Beck (Ed.), On history. Indianapolis, IN: Bobbs-Merrill.
23.
Linz, J. (1994). Presidential or parliamentary democracy: Does it make a difference? In J. Linz & A. Valenzuela (Eds.), The failure of presidential democracy (pp. 3-87). Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
24.
Linz, J.,& Stepan, A. (1978). The breakdown of democratic regimes. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
25.
Lipset, S. M., Seong, K.-R.,& Torres, J. (1993, May). Acomparative analysis of the social requisites of democracy. International Social Science Journal, 136, 155-175.
26.
Londregan, J.,& Poole, K. (1996, October). Does high income promote democracy?World Politics, 49, 1-30.
27.
Mainwaring, S. (1993, July). Presidentialism, multipartism, and democracy: The difficult combination. Comparative Political Studies, 26, 198-228.
28.
Mainwaring, S., Brinks, D., & Pérez-Liñán, A. (2001, Spring). Classifying political regimes in Latin America, 1945-1999. Studies in Comparative International Development, 36, 37-65.
29.
Mainwaring, S.,& Shugart, M. (Eds.). (1997). Presidentialism and democracy in Latin America. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
30.
Moses, L. E. (1968). Truncation and censorship. In D. L. Sills (Ed.), International encyclopedia of the social sciences (Vol. 16, pp. 196-201). New York: Macmillan & Free.
31.
Most, B., & Starr, H. (1990). Theoretical and logical issues in the study of international diffusion. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 2, 391-412.
32.
Muller, E. (1988). Democracy, economic development, and income inequality. American Sociological Review, 53(2), 50-68.
33.
Muller, E. (1995, December). Economic determinants of democracy. American Sociological Review, 60, 966-982.
34.
O’Donnell, G., & Schmitter, P. (1986). Transitions from authoritarian rule: Tentative conclusions about uncertain transitions. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
35.
O’Loughlin, J., Ward, M. D., Lofdahl, C. L., Cohen, J. S., Brown, D. S., Reilly, D., et al. (1998, December). The diffusion of democracy, 1946-1994. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 88, 545-574.
36.
Pevehouse, J. (2002). With a little help frommyfriends? Regional organizations and the consolidation of democracy. American Journal of Political Science46(3), 611-626.
37.
Przeworski, A., Alvarez, M., Cheibub, J., & Limongi, F. (1996). What makes democracies endure?Journal of Democracy, 7(1), 39-55.
38.
Przeworski, A., Alvarez, M., Cheibub, J., & Limongi, F. (2000). Democracy and development: Political institutions and well-being in the world, 1950-1990. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
39.
Przeworski, A., & Limongi, F. (1997, January). Modernization: Theories and facts. World Politics, 49, 155-183.
40.
Rogers, E. (1995). Diffusion of innovations (4th ed.). New York: Free Press.
41.
Rustow, D. (1970). Transitions to democracy. Comparative Politics, 2, 337-363.
42.
Skocpol, T. (1973, Fall). A critical review of Barrington Moore's Social origins of dictatorship and democracy. Politics and Society, 4, 1-34.
43.
Starr, H. (1991, June). Democratic dominoes: Diffusion approaches to the spread of democracy in the international system. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 35, 356-381.
44.
Starr, H., & Lindborg, C. (2003). Democratic dominoes revisited: The hazards of governmental transitions, 1974-1996. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47(4), 490-519.
45.
Stepan, A., & Skach, C. (1993, October). Constitutional frameworks and democratic consolidation: Parliamentarism and presidentialism. World Politics, 46, 1-22.
46.
Vanhanen, T. (1990). The process of democratization: A comparative study of 147 states, 1980-88. New York: Crane Russak.
47.
Whitehead, L. (1986). International aspects of democratization. In G. O’Donnell, P. Schmitter, & L. Whitehead (Eds.), Transitions from authoritarian rule (pp. 3-46). Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
