The Cross-Sectional Determinants of Secessionism in Advanced Democracies

Abstract

This article analyzes the “risk factors” of secessionism at the substate, regional level. It seeks to answer the question, What regions are more likely to support more successful secessionist parties? Using new data in cross-sectional regression analysis, the author finds that secessionism involves unique factors not common to other kinds of ethnic conflict. Specifically, in addition to “identity” variables such as regional language and history of independence, the following variables explain secessionist strength: lack of irredentist potential, relative affluence, geographical noncontiguity, population, and multiparty political system. These factors generally serve as activators of ethnic identity rather than a substitute for the same, although there are important cases of nonethnic secessionism.