Predicting Surgical Margins in Patients With Borderline Resectable and Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Undergoing Resection

Abstract

Background

Many patients with borderline resectable/locally advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (borderline resectable [BR]/locally advanced [LA] pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma [PDAC]) undergoing resection will have positive resection margins (R1), which is associated with poor prognosis. It might be useful to preoperatively predict the margin (R) status.

Methods

Data from patients with BR/LA PDAC who underwent a pancreatectomy between 2008 and 2018 at Brigham and Women’s Hospital were retrospectively reviewed. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between R status and relevant preoperative factors. Significant predictors of R1 resection on univariate analysis (P < .1) were entered into a stepwise selection using the Akaike information criterion to define the final model.

Results

A total of 142 patients with BR/LA PDAC were included in the analysis, 60(42.3%) had R1 resections. In stepwise selection, the following factors were identified as positive predictors of an R1 resection: evidence of lymphadenopathy at diagnosis (OR = 2.06, 95% CI: 0.99-4.36, P = .056), the need for pancreaticoduodenectomy (OR = 3.81, 96% CI: 1.15-15.70, P = .040), extent of portal vein/superior mesenteric vein involvement at restaging (<180°, OR = 3.57, 95% CI: 1.00-17.00, P = .069, ≥180°, OR = 7,32, 95% CI: 1.75-39.87, P = .010), stable CA 19-9 serum levels (less than 50% decrease from diagnosis to restaging, OR = 2.27, 95% CI: 0.84-6.36 P = .107), and no preoperative FOLFIRINOX (OR = 2.17, 95% CI: 0.86-5.64, P = .103). The prognostic nomogram based on this model yielded a probability of achieving an R1 resection ranging from <5% (0 factors) to >70% (all 5 factors).

Conclusions

Relevant preoperative clinicopathological characteristics accurately predict positive resection margins in patients with BR/LA PDAC before resection. With further development, this model might be used to preoperatively guide surgical decision-making in patients with BR/LA PDAC.