Potential Drivers of Terrorism out to the Year 2020

Abstract

While no one can predict the future, informed forecasting can provide decision makers with information and intelligence to establish realistic and achievable goals. Gazing out to the year 2020, I envision four drivers of change that will likely affect the trajectory of terrorist groups and movements: (a) Rapidly evolving technology will offer benefits for both terrorist entities and the authorities who work to curtail their activities; (b) Increasing globalization and political upheaval will produce new and interesting alliances between groups with seemingly little in common (e.g., White supremacists and Mexican drug cartels); (c) The most successful terrorist movements will be those that adopt hybrid structures, integrating both hierarchical and networked structures to achieve maximum success; and (d) The blurring of boundaries on many fronts will make it increasingly difficult to find meaningful differences between gangs, criminal enterprises, political actors, and terrorists.