Elite Collusion and Creeping Authoritarianism in Nicaragua: Lessons on Democratic Backsliding from an Outlier Case

Abstract

Nicaragua has followed an unusual path from democracy to authoritarianism. In 2000, despite deep political polarization, outgoing Liberal president Arnoldo Alemán colluded with opposition leader Daniel Ortega to convert politically neutral judicial and electoral institutions into partisan tools. Their pact constrained the party system and lowered the electoral threshold, enabling Ortega to win the presidency in 2006. From a minority position in the legislature, Ortega’s Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) party used the politicized judiciary and electoral infrastructure to remove presidential term limits and manipulate elections. After gaining a legislative majority, the FSLN then reformed the constitution to consolidate power. Public resistance to democratic decline came slowly and too late: Initially offset by social spending funded in part by international authoritarian allies, it was ultimately repressed. The Nicaragua case shows that a gradualist pathway toward democratic backsliding may be available to minority parties in poor countries.