Backsliding by Elite Collusion: Authoritarianism and Democratic Resurgence in Guatemala

Abstract

Guatemala is a case study in democratic backsliding led not by an aggrandized executive, but by a coalition of elites who collude to maximize and protect their collective power. Beginning in the mid-2010s, a decentralized but deeply entrenched network of elites dismantled democracy when anticorruption efforts threatened their common interests. The 2023 election was widely expected to consolidate this authoritarian turn but, instead, delivered an unexpected democratic resurgence when a moderate anticorruption reformer secured a shocking victory and then successfully resisted a “slow-motion coup” aimed at preventing the transfer of power. The Guatemalan case suggests that, under elite collusion, elites can be more prone to splits and strategic errors than in other authoritarian settings. These missteps provide unexpected opportunities to reverse backsliding, but democrats must be prepared to capitalize on regime errors and repel authoritarian counteroffensives by building broad coalitions that work simultaneously across multiple arenas of democratic contestation.