Briefing for the New President: The Terrorist Threat in Indonesia and Southeast Asia

Abstract

Counterterrorism capacity in Southeast Asia is improving, reducing the likelihood of a major attack on Western targets in the near term. However, jihadi ideology has taken root in Indonesia, and while the region's largest terrorist organization, Jemaah Islamiyah, appears to be more interested in rebuilding than mounting operations, its members still constitute an important recruitment pool for other groups. Most Indonesian jihadis appear to be more focused on local than foreign targets, but that focus can aid recruitment and facilitate alliances with other organizations. While the Iraq insurgency has not attracted Southeast Asian participation, the resurgence of the Taliban on the Afghan-Pakistan border could. The United States, under the next president, could help develop better information sharing between South and Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia may not be the “second front” that many feared after the first Bali bombs, but the terrorism threat in the region has not gone away.