CarusM, DammerL, RaschkaA, SkoczinskiP, vom BergC. nova-Paper #12: Renewable Carbon–Key to a Sustainable and Future-Oriented Chemical and Plastic Industry (2020). nova-Institut (Ed.), Hürth, Germany, 2020-09. Available at: http://bio-based.eu/nova-papers/#novapaper12
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nova-Institute. The Renewable Carbon Initiative (RCI) (2021). Available at: https://renewable-carbon-initiative.com
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IPCC (United States Environmental Protection Agency). Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data. Available at: https://epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data (Last accessed May2021).
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OlivierJG, SchureK, PetersJ. Trends in global CO2 and total greenhouse gas emissions (2017). Available at https://pbl.nl/sites/default/files/downloads/pbl-2020-trendsin-global-co2-and-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2019-report_4068.pdf
5.
10% of the total final energy consumption used by the chemical sector. Hence, it's the largest industrial energy consumer, ahead of iron and steel, and cement. 90% of primary oil and natural gas demand occur in “Other industry”, “Power”, “Transport”, “Buildings”, and “Others”; PalesAF, LeviP. The Future of Petrochemicals: Towards More Sustainable Plastics andFertilisers. 2018. IEA. Available at: https://iea.org/reports/the-future-of-petrochemicals
6.
Shares of global oil and gas consumption of for petrochemicals according to Pales and Levi (2018). According to BP's Statistical Review 2019 (Dudley B. BP statistical review of world energy 2019. BP, London, UK, Available at: https://bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-full-report.pdf), the global annual consumption of oil was 4,662 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2019. 14% of this corresponds to around 650 Mtoe, which contain an amount of 560 Mt of carbon, equal to 2,050 Mt of CO2. Also according to BP, global annual consumption of natural gas is 3,309 Mtoe of which 8% or 265 Mtoe is used for petrochemicals. This corresponds to 226 Mt of natural gas (1 Mtoe = 0.855 Mt natural gas, according to BP) or 165 Mt of carbon (carbon content = 73% based on own calculations), which corresponds to 605 Mt of CO2.
7.
The “embedded carbon” is also called “hidden carbon”, because the related potential CO2 emissions at end-of-life of the product are only barely visible.
8.
The composition of fossil resources (share of oil, gas and coal used in the chemical industry excluding the production of ammonium), absolute figures for fossil-based thermoplastics, thermosets, solvents, additives & explosives, and other chemicals for the year 2013 are based on Levi and Cullen (2018); LeviPG, CullenJM. Mapping global flows of chemicals: From fossil fuel feedstocks to chemical products. Environ Sci Technol, 2018; 52(4):1725-1734. Figures for biobased thermoplastics, thermosets, and solvents and additives, figures for rubber products, total man-made fibers, and biobased man-made fibers for the year 2020 are based on Skoczinski et al. (2021); Skoczinski P, Carus M, de Guzman, et al. Bio based building blocks and polymers–Global capacities, production and Trends 2020–2025. nova-Institut (Ed.), Hürth, Germany, 2021-01. Available at: https://renewable-carbon.eu/publications/product/bio-based-building-blocks-and-polymers-globalcapacities-production-and-trends-2020-2025. The composition of biobased feedstocks and the amount of other biobased chemicals for the year 2010 is based on Piotrowski et al. (2015); Piotrowski S, Essel R, Carus M, Dammer L, Engel L. Nachhaltig nutzbare Potenziale für Biokraftstoffe in Nutzungskonkurrenz zur Lebens- und Futtermittelproduktion, Bioenergie sowie zur stofflichen Nutzung in Deutschland, Europa und der Welt. nova-Institut (Ed.), Hürth, Germany, 2015-08. Available at: at http://bio-based.eu/markets/#Biomassepotenziale. Figures for total recycling are based on Hundertmark et al. (2018); Hundertmark T, Mayer M, McNally C, Simons TJ Witte C. How plastics waste recycling could transform the chemical industry. Available at https://mckinsey.com/industries/chemicals/our-insights/how-plastics-waste-recycling-could-transform-the-chemical-industry. Figures for recycled man-made fibers are based on Textile Exchange (2020); Textile Exchange 2020. Preferred Fiber & Materials Market Report 2020. Textile Exchange, Available at: https://textileexchange.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Textile-Exchange_Preferred-Fiber-Material-Market-Report_2020.pdf. Carbon content of each substance is determined by experts from nova-Institute, using weighted averages, based on production volumes stated in the mentioned publications.
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GeyerR, JambeckJR, LawKL. Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made. Sci Adv, 2017; 3(7):e1700782. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1700782
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LeviPG, CullenJM. Mapping global flows of chemicals: From fossil fuel feedstocks to chemical products. Environ Sci & Technol, 2018; 52(4):1725-1734. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.7b04573
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Mordor Intelligence. 2019. Thermosetting Plasitcs Market –Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2021 - 2026). Mordor Intelligence. Available at: https://mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/thermoset-composites-market
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The Fiber Year Consulting. The Fiber Year 2020. Available at: https://thefiberyear.com/fileadmin/pdf/2020/TFY2020_TOC.pdf
13.
Skoczinski et al. (2021).
14.
End-user applications for thermoplastics based on Geyer et al. (2017). End-user applications for thermosets based on Mordor Intelligence (2019). Applications of man-made fibers based on The Fiber Year Consulting (2020)
15.
Piotrowski et al. (2015).
16.
Hundertmark et al. (2018).
17.
NACE class C20 “Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products”, except for sub-class C20.6 “Manufacture of man-made fibres”. “Other chemical products” include additives, animal & vegetable fats/oils, biofuels, etc.
18.
UN DESA. 2019. World Population Prospects 2019. United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Available at: https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/
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BP 2020. Energy Outlook – 2020 edition. Available at: https://bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy outlook-2020.pdf
20.
The reference scenario provided by IEA (2018) predicts a doubling of the demand of thermoplastics per capita until. 2050, which corresponds to +1.3% p.a. BP (2020) foresees an increase in the non-combusted use of fossil fuels of +1.1 % p.a. in the business-as-usual scenario and +2.7% if the trends of the past 20 years are extrapolated. Roland Berger (2015) estimates a growth of +3.6 to 4.2% p.a. for 2011 to 2035 for the global chemical sector; Berger R. Chemicals 2035 – Gearing up for Growth – How Europe's chemical industry can gain traction in a tougher world (2015). Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH. Available at: https://rolandberger.com/publications/publication_pdf/roland_berger_tab_chemicals_2035_20150521.pdf
21.
The demand is dominated by feed (60%) and food (12%), followed by bioenergy and -fuels (16% and 2% respectively) and materials (10%, mainly wood), according toCarus et al. (2020); Carus M, Porc O, Chinthapalli R. How much biomass do bio-based plastics need? bioplastics MAGAZINE, Vol. 02/20 2020.
22.
The amount of biobased carbon for organic chemicals and derived materials is 50 Mt C p.a., see Figure 4. Assuming a carbon content of 47.5%, the worldwide supply of biobased carbon is 5.8 bln tonnes C. Hence, 50 Mt C correspond to 0.86% of global supply.
23.
Different scenarios deployed by Piotrowski et al. (2015). In the 2050 “Business-as-usual” scenario, global biomass supply is 18.17 Gt (dry matter) annually, in the “High” scenario 25.15 Gt.
24.
In light of the decarbonization of the energy sector, point sources of CO2 like fossil-powered plants will not be available anymore in the future. However, some point sources will still be available like industrial fermentation facilities or other industrial processes like calcination.
25.
In a recent study Kätelhön et al. (2019) describe a scenario for 2030, where 22 important chemicals have a production volume of 1,000 Mt (Kätelhön A, Meys R, Deutz S, et al. Climate change mitigation potential of carbon capture and utilization in the chemical industry. Proc National Acad Sci, 2019; 116(23):11187-11194). This results in 520 Mt of carbon (own calculation). To replace fossil-based feedstock only with technologies that have a high TRL today, 32.0 PWh of electricity are required or 0.06 PWh per Mt C. This results in 15 PWh, if chemicals containing 250 Mt C were produced. Assuming a typical PV-yield of 250 GWh/km2 /y, this corresponds to 62.000 km2 of desert land.
26.
Petrochemicals Europe. 2018. Petrochemicals Europe flowchart. Available at: https://petrochemistry.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PE-Flow-Chart_Update-2015_V031.pdf
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Unilever. Unilever to eliminate fossil fuels in cleaning products by 2030. Available at: https://unilever.com/news/press-releases/2020/unilever-to-invest-1-billion-to-eliminate-fossil-fuels-in-cleaning-products-by-2030.html
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L'Oreal. Transparency, Security and Green Sciences, L'Oréal share its vision of the beauty of the Future. Available at: https://loreal.com/en/press-release/group/transparency-security-and-green-sciences-loreal-share-its-vision-of-the-beauty-of-the-future/
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Note that, according to the renewable carbon concept, fossil carbon becomes renewable carbon through recycling. This means that recyclates, regardless of where their original carbon comes from, are always part of the renewable carbon family and therefore naturally do not fall under the fossil carbon tax, which only concerns additional fossil carbon from the soil.
30.
The Renewable Carbon Initiative. Available at: http://renewable-carbon-initiative.com/
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SimonF. 100 Milliarden Dollar für Öl, Gas und Kohle – jedes Jahr (2018) Available at: https://www.euractiv.de/section/energie-und-umwelt/news/100-milliardendollar-fuer-oel-gas-und-kohle-jedes-jahr/ (Last accessed June2018).
