Identifying Opportunity for Conflict: Politically Active Dyads

Abstract

Since states cannot fight without the opportunity to do so, empirical identification of opportunity is important. Unfortunately, previous measures of opportunity—politically relevant dyads, the politically relevant international environment, and regional dyads—are inadequate. I attempt to measure opportunity by developing the concept of a politically active dyad, using contiguity, power status, and alliances as defining characteristics. I then use Braumoeller and Goertz's (2000) methodology for necessary conditions to compare active dyads with previous measures. This test demonstrates that although previous measures are unable to capture opportunity as a necessary condition for international conflict, the concept of politically active dyads does.