Outlook on Agriculture

The intensification of animal production systems proceeded rapidly in the latter part of the twentieth century, often aided by government support. However, only short-term benefits of intensification were realized and consumers started to select animal produce from less intensive production systems in the belief that it would be healthier, kinder to the animals and less likely to cause damage to the environment. Recent research has shown that the production of high quality traditional dairy products will provide an income for more people than intensive dairy production, thus helping to serve as a functional basis for rural land use. It is often argued that extensive production cannot produce enough food for the majority of the population, but such estimates rely on outdated and inadequate levels of output from the traditional systems. Modern organic dairy systems, for example, should produce at least two-thirds of that of intensive systems and should therefore be able to provide for the majority of consumers in the UK. However, it is anticipated that increased global trade in livestock products will further threaten the livelihood of UK producers. Their options are to reduce input costs and develop specialized markets for high quality products ahead of their competitors. For example, the increased potential lifespan of the human population will encourage people to consume products that promote longevity, such as those with minimal contamination by pollutants. In many parts of the world, but particularly in the central continental land masses, livestock production will be challenged by global warming. Traditional production systems are likely to survive better, as they are buffered against variations in weather. It is concluded that livestock production systems have the potential to provide high quality food and employment, especially in marginal areas, and to preserve the land for the benefit of future generations. However, if badly managed, intensive systems may lead to major adverse effects on the environment, damage to human health and a reduction in food supply for those in developing countries.

Family poultry (FP), which are still important in low-income food-deficit countries, represent an appropriate system for supplying the rapidly growing human population with high quality protein and providing additional income to resource-poor small farmers, especially women. Although requiring low levels of inputs, FP contribute significantly to food security, poverty alleviation and ecologically sound management of natural resources. FP are also valued in the religious and sociocultural lives of local communities. However, constraints facing FP production systems are related to high mortality (mainly due to Newcastle disease), housing, feeding, breeding, marketing, training, credit and information. Appropriate research and development programmes are those that adopt participatory, holistic and multi- and transdisciplinary approaches. Improvements, which should take sociocultural and economic circumstances into account, must be introduced gradually.

The growth in rice production in Asia fell from 2.6% between 1966 and 1990 to 1.4% during the 1990s, mainly due to a deceleration in yield growth in the most intensively irrigated environments, where farm-level yields had already reached about 6.0 t ha^–1. At this threshold of yields, farmers required more groundbreaking technology to elevate yields in highly productive environments. Inspired by the success of the ‘Chinese miracle’, policy makers and research managers in tropical Asia considered hybrid rice, an innovative technology, as an option to sustain growth in rice production. Rigorous research efforts over the past decade have led to the release of a few promising rice hybrids in India, Bangladesh, Vietnam and the Philippines. This paper aims to assess the prospects for replicating the Chinese miracle of hybrid rice success in other Asian countries, where political systems and other socioeconomic conditions differ from those in China. The authors evaluated farmers' experiences with hybrid rice in India, Bangladesh and Vietnam. The analysis indicates that the particular political system and other socioeconomic factors, and not the inherent economic superiority of this technology, were the driving forces behind the success of Chinese hybrid rice. Thus in other Asian countries, where these factors are not evident and where market forces operate freely (apart from Vietnam), it is unlikely that the success of Chinese hybrid rice will be replicated in toto. Although hybrid rice has a yield gain of about 15–20% over the existing high-yielding modern varieties outside China, it is not attractive to farmers because of higher input costs and lower market prices due to its inferior grain quality. Thus currently available rice hybrids are unlikely to find potential demand in the targeted environments (irrigated rice systems) in the tropics. Hybrid rice would be successful on farms outside China if quality and seed production practices were to be improved and if there was proper deployment planning based on a microlevel analysis of the socioeconomic factors likely to affect its adoption.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) need to adapt and change to remain competitive in the rapidly changing business environment of the twenty-first century. As with many other industries this is evident in the agri-food industry in Wales, where agri-food SMEs can obtain a competitive advantage through the use of information and communication technologies (ICT), especially the Internet and Websites. It is argued that many of these firms are often inadept at implementing changes that are technology-enabled. Policy makers, including the Welsh Agri-Food Partnership, also recognize that the agri-food culture is adversarial in nature and this needs to be addressed if technical advancement is to be achieved. With the recognition of the importance of e-business in other industries, there is a danger that many agri-food SMEs will be technology-disabled. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to explore the social consequences of the slow adoption of the Internet and Websites by agri-food SMEs in Wales and to consider ways of overcoming this problem. The paper concludes by reporting on ICT assistance provided by support schemes in Wales and on the social, political and cultural implications for farming communities.

The food situation in India is worsening day by day, mainly due to an ever increasing human population. It is difficult to increase crop productivity with the current availability of land, water resources, labour, finance and crop production technology. Among the newer technologies, the cultivation of genetically modified crops (GMCs) may help in improving food availability, nutritional quality and shelf life of harvested produce and in developing plants resistant to insect pests, disease pathogens and herbicides. However, GMCs have attracted many critics because of their potential impacts on biodiversity, toxicity to non-target organisms, cross-resistance in pests, the higher prices of seeds and foods, monopoly of companies, patent and regulatory approval, and safety to consumers. Some consider that GMCs are unwanted, unsafe and unnecessary, while others favour their introduction and use in India. The debate continues among scientists, policy makers, social activists, farmers and consumers, but this situation may change in the near future because of the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) policies on globalization and the free market.

Transgenic resistance to broad-spectrum herbicides is increasingly seen in various crops. With transgenic herbicie-resistant (THR) cultivars, application of broad-spectrum herbicides is no longer limited to the pre-emergence stage of the crop. Post-emergence application of these herbicides may be more effective in obtaining sufficient weed control compared with currently used herbicides, and herbicide treatment can be delayed compared with that in non-THR crops, thereby controlling weeds at a larger plant size. A well known side effect of glyphosate and glufosinate ammonium is the emergence of so-called ‘herbicide-synergists’, ie opportunistic root pathogens that accelerate the killing of roots that are herbicide-sensitive. These opportunistic plant pathogens, multiplying in the dying roots of weeds, may affect THR crops. In addition, suppressive effects of glyphosate and/or glufosinate ammonium on the saprophytic and antagonistic microflora have been reported and may enhance the activity of root pathogens. The authors hypothesize that delaying herbicide use in THR cultivars to optimize weed control results in increased infections by root pathogens. Controlled field experiments on the interactions between crops, pathogens and weeds are required to test this hypothesis.

The seed is an important propagative material for most food and pasture crops. Seed-borne diseases of cereals, grain legumes, fibre, root and tubers, ornamentals, pastures and vegetable crops cause decreased yields and, in some cases, total loss of affected crops. The provision of efficient seed health testing centres is an insurance against outbreaks of diseases. This paper presents a general as well as a specific review of seed-borne diseases of most crops. Suggestions are made for the establishment of improved, well staffed and equipped seed health testing centres in Nigeria.