National Institute Economic Review

The domestic forecasts, which were finalised in the second week of May, make no allowance for the economic repercussions of the Falklands crisis, which have been small so far. The direct impact on total UK trade of the embargo on exports to Argentina will be negligible (see page 36). Although other effects, such as those working through a higher level of defence expenditure or the state of confidence in financial markets, are potentially of greater importance, these are impossible to predict at the time of writing.