The Energy Journal

Hans Landsberg and Sam Schurr each led research teams that produced two important energy futures policy studies that were published in 1979. The conclusions, policy recommendations, and energy demand, supply, and price forecasts contained in these studies are reviewed. Developments in U.S. energy policy over the last 25 years are discussed and compared with the recommendations contained in the two studies. The projections of energy demand, supply, and prices for 2000 contained in the studies are presented and compared to actual realizations. The nature, magnitudes, and reasons for the differences between the studies’ forecasts and what actually emerged 25 years later are discussed. All things considered, the Landsberg and Schurr studies have stood the test of time very well.

Technological innovation will continue to be essential in the energy system for both economic and public policy reasons. The process of innovation is typically incremental, cumulative, and assimilative. Innovation may produce revolutionary outcomes through the accumulation of small steps, or because it introduces new performance characteristics that the market values. In some circumstances, public policy intervention to overcome obstacles to innovation may be justified to secure public benefits. One obstacle is that innovators may be unable to capture all of the available economic benefits of innovation. Another is that economic benefits may not be available and the value of the public good has not been internalized in the market. Experience with energy innovation suggests government intervention works best when it is carefully targeted on specific obstacles. Why some government policies have not been successful and suggestions for new policy approaches that might be useful are also discussed.

One of the most striking things about forecasters is their lack of historical perspective. They rarely do retrospectives, even though looking back at past work can both illuminate the reasons for its success or failure, and improve the methodologies of current and future forecasts. One of the best and most famous retrospectives is that by Hans Landsberg, which investigates work conducted by Landsberg, Sam Schurr, and others. In this article, written mainly for model users, we highlight Landsberg’s retrospective as a uniquely valuable contribution to improving forecasting methodologies. We also encourage model users to support such retrospectives more frequently. Finally, we give the current generation of analysts the kind of guidance we believe Landsberg and Sam Schurr would have offered about how to do retrospectives well.

In large part, the literature on energy and development focuses on how energy demand is driven by economic development and on how energy services can be improved for developing countries. In this paper we begin with a conceptual discussion to identify the channels through which increased availability of energy services might act as a “key” stimulus of economic development along different stages of the development process. We then examine some empirical work to see what evidence it might provide regarding the importance of the possible channels of influence. We do find some important illustrations of a disproportionate role for energy. However, that evidence also underscores the importance of energy development in concert with other forms of development. Moreover, the amount of relevant literature we found was fairly limited, and in many cases it was difficult to separate out various influences in the study to see how energy might be exerting a disproportionate role relative to other influences. This underscores our conclusion that more work is needed to understand the magnitude of its importance for economic development at an economy-wide level.