Energy & Environment

We have reanalyzed the available data on the terrestrial temperature in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 1000 years using both direct observations and various proxy records. It is shown that the only plausible conclusion, which can be drawn from these data is that global temperature has been increasing since the end of the 19th century. However, due to discrepancies between different large-scale temperature proxies, it is impossible to determine whether this warming is anomalous or a result of natural climatic cycles. Furthermore, the amplitude of the temperature rise cannot be estimated correctly because of considerable disagreement between thermometer records, proxy data and satellite measurements over the last 20–30 years. Thus, the origin of the rise of global temperature should be considered to be unknown due to a lack of adequate knowledge about any of the factors that may be responsible for this phenomenon (the greenhouse effect, the rise of solar activity, natural climatic variability, regional anthropogenic impact etc.). A few probable scenarios of climatic changes in the first part of the 21^st century are discussed.

A new publication by NOAA (US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) claims to have removed the previously evident discrepancies between mean global temperature anomalies measured on the surface and those measured in the lower troposphere. It claims that a combination of attention to inaccuracies and the use of linear regression equations on selected climate sequences have removed these discrepancies.

This paper shows that these claims are untrue. The apparent agreement of the two sets of records for the chosen sequences is dependent on the enhanced influence of volcanoes and El Niño events in the lower troposphere, compared with an additional warming factor on the surface. If a temperature sequence comparatively free from these influences, (1979–1997) is chosen, there is no significant warming in the lower atmosphere for six of the seven records, and for the seventh, no significant warming between 1988 and 1997; whereas warming still prevails on the surface over these periods. The supposed enhanced greenhouse effect is thus currently undetectable in the lower atmosphere, where it is supposed to be most prominent, for extended periods, so the warming on the surface over these periods must have some other cause.

Australia currently has significantly less wind power capacity than Germany, the world leader, but has a much larger land area with considerable untapped wind energy resources. Australia like the rest of the world has experienced a rapid increase in its wind power industry over the last decade, particularly in the southern states, South Australia, Western Australia and Victoria. However, the rapidity in the development of wind power projects has caused controversy and criticism of inadequate planning and inconsistency in environmental impact assessment. This paper examines the implications of the rapid growth in Australian wind power in terms of the need for a strategic approach to environmental assessment.

At the level of theory it is now widely accepted that energy consumption patterns are a complex technical and socio-cultural phenomenon and to understand this phenomenon, it must be viewed from both engineering and social science perspectives. However, the methodological approaches taken in household energy studies lag behind the theoretical advances made in the last ten or fifteen years. The quantitative research methods traditionally used within the fields of building science, economics, and psychology continue to dominate household energy studies, while the qualitative ethnographic approaches to examining social and cultural phenomena traditionally used within anthropology and sociology are most frequently overlooked. This paper offers a critical review of the research methods used in household energy studies which illustrates the scope and limitations of both qualitative and quantitative research methods in this area of study. In doing so it demonstrates that qualitative research methods are essential to designing effective energy efficiency interventions.

The world oil problem will not disappear, even if from time to time the oil price appears to have stabilized. Several key issues of crucial importance for the global oil supply are examined. It is pointed out that several prominent forecasts for later in this century are based on false premises, in particular the part that will be played by OPEC countries. These countries will not come up to expectations because geology may not provide. Even if it did, economics would lead them to choose another strategy.