China Report

The trend of Bush's policy and its impact in international affairs is worth noting during the second presidential term of George Bush. The US, besides persisting in pushing forward its ‘democratisation plan in the greater Middle East’, has been intensifying its attempt to penetrate into Central Asia. For some time now, the main focus of US foreign policy has been Iraq, the Gulf and the Middle East, but it has given equal importance to containing the so-called ‘North Korean nuclear weapon’ and to the ‘Iranian nuclear issue’. There were new developments in China-Russia-India tripartite relations. China and India agreed to establish a strategic partnership, greatly promoting bilateral relations between them. The developmental process in these countries, Russia-China and India, has provided ample scope for strengthening trilateral cooperation among them.

The world is experiencing an intricate period of changes and new dimensions in international relations. Other issues prevalent in international life are the problems of international terrorism together with other modem challenges and threats including weapons of mass destruction. There have been official visits at state levels between Russia and India, between China and India and between Russia and China. Intensive political contacts and trade collaboration between our countries on a bilateral level have been significant developments in the present. An important event has been the trilateral meeting of the foreign ministers of India, China and Russia in Vladivostok. In a Joint Communiqué, it was highlighted that strategic cooperation between the three countries is not directed against any other country. Russia, India and China continue to look for effective ways of developing a constructive partnership with the United States. The vital issue today remains the problem of strengthening the leading role of the United Nations (UN), justified reformation of this organisation by considering the interests of majority of members of the world community. Russia, as well as its Indian and Chinese friends, continues to proceed from the fact that the central role of uniting the efforts of the world community in deciding the key issues must belong to the UN.

Though India, China and Russia are not seeking to create an alliance, the very fact that these three large neighbouring countries, each a major global actor in its own right, sit together to share views, is a significant contribution to making international relations more just and democratic. The recent improvement in India-China relations has further strengthened the triangle. All three countries are well placed to play greater roles in a world where the importance of ‘knowledge power’ is rising. The US continues to be the sole super power and all three countries must have good relations with it. But, hopefully, the experience in Iraq will make it more respectful of the world's public opinion. All of us—including the majority of Muslims—have to work together not only to isolate the extremists but also to address the legitimate grievances that are exploited by them to gain more adherents. The three countries need to cooperate in the reform of the UN system. India-Pakistan relations continue to improve. But the path ahead is still full of difficult obstacles. There are also disturbing reports about the linkage between certain elements in Pakistan and Bangladesh promoting Islamic extremism in the region. Central Asia is an important neighbouring region of our three countries, because of its strategic location and vast oil and gas reserves. Unfortunately, religious extremism, bad governance and external interference are threatening to produce an explosive mixture.

The twenty-first century is witnessing certain key developments on the energy scene. Even as the centre of gravity of global energy markets is shifting rapidly and resolutely to the Asian continent. Russia is emerging as a formidable petro-state. There is a natural synergy between resource-rich Russia and the energy-thirsty economies of China and India. Geographically, the three together constitute a massive and contiguous land mass, home to a third of the global population and rich in natural as well as human resources. This fortuitous configuration opens up possibilities for forging a new regional identity, based on shared interests and mutually beneficial cooperation. Energy cooperation leads the list of such possibilities. This paper identifies potential areas of energy cooperation among the three countries of the region, namely, Russia, China and India, and in doing so, adopts an approach that goes beyond the conventional, to examine prospects that are at once specific, immediate and feasible.

This article examines a specific problem that is important to the beginnings and fate of triangular cooperation—the development of Russian foreign policy towards India during the Putin administration and the nature of Indo-Russian cooperation. It presents a perspective on why the consolidation of presidential authority in Russia has made a difference to cooperation—drawing on the foundations of such cooperation in policy assumptions and institutions of the Yeltsin era. It also examines an assumption prevalent among policymakers—that a close umbilical cord exists between Moscow and New Delhi that has been consolidated despite the changing weather of international politics. It draws into the discussion factors of mutability and private initiative, suggesting that these exert various pulls on the relationship—the Indo-Russian cooperative relationship dominated by an authoritative Presidency working by democratic rules exists in a fast changing environment. If defence and energy issues have consolidated cooperation, the links between the two economies now figure actors who have little to do with government. And the failure of government to involve these actors in cooperation has been a limitation of the relationship.

Trade between China and India has grown rapidly in recent years, and has received a further political impetus from the visit of the Chinese premier to India in April. After briefly summarising the relevant sections of the Report of the Joint Study Group on Comprehensive Trade and Economic Cooperation that was set up by the two governments, this essay examines two issues that deserve greater attention. First, the use of anti-dumping duties by India against imports from China and Russia in the context of both being treated as non-market economies; second, a possible Free Trade Agreement between India and China. The essay concludes that there are strong economic and political arguments for improving bilateral trade and communications and for modifying anti-dumping procedures, but the case for a bilateral FTA is not that strong.