Problems in and Sources for the Study of Economic Fluctuations 1660–1800

Abstract

Economic fluctuations pose practical as well as theoretical problems. War, credit conditions (including bank failures), weather, external demand (important for a small economy, especially in war time) were the main influences affecting the level of activity. There was some synchronisation between Irish conditions and the level of demand in foreign ports until 1770. Thereafter English influences predominated. Runs of data for trade and revenue are not time-sensitive for conditions within the year. The precise dating of an upturn or of nadir points in activity remains difficult. Hence price data and exchange rates are vital. Commodity prices are abundant from the 1750s; Dublin exchange rates on London were published regularly only from the late 1770s (in contrast to a perfect run of London rates on Dublin). The letters of merchants and of land agents, where available, are a sensitive source.