One of the most important challenges facing energy analysts is to predict future energy consumption levels. The volatility of energy prices following the 1973 oil embargo and the unexpected elasticity of demand to higher prices caught most energy forecasters off the mark (see Energy Daily, "How It Didn't Turn Out: The Forecasters Who Failed," 1986). The same can be said of electricity forecasters who consistently overshot growth rates for over a decade despite compelling signs to lower their projections (Uhler and Nelson, 1985), (see Figure 1).
BardY. (1974). Nonlinear Parameter Estimation. New York: Academic Press.
2.
BorgesA. M.CrowR. T., (1981). Demand 80i81: Forecasts of Energy Consumption to the Year 2000. Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI EA-2078.
3.
DraperN. R.SmithM. (1981). Applied Regression Analysis. New York: John Wiley.
4.
Energy Daily (1986). “How It Didn’t Turn Out: The Forecasters Who Failed (And One Other).” 14: 1 (January2, 1986).
5.
Energy Information Administration (1982). Anmuil Report to Congress, Vol. 2, Energy Statistics. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Dept, of Energy.
6.
Energy Modeling Forum (1979). Electric Load Forecasting: Probing the Issues with Models. EMF Report 3, Vol. 1.
7.
Energy Modeling Forum (1980). Aggregate Elasticity of Energy Demand. EMF Report 4, Vol. 1.
8.
GarberS.KlepperS. (1980). “Extending the Classical Normal Errors-In-Variable Model.” Econometrica, 48(6): pp. 1541-46.
9.
HoganW. W. (1978). Energy and Economy. Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI EA-620.
10.
HoganW. W. (1984). “Patterns of Energy Use.” Energy and Environmental Policy Center, Discussion Paper E-84-04. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University.
11.
KalmanR. E. (1982). “Identifiability and Problems of Model Selection in Econometrics.” InW. Hildenbrand, cd., Advances in Econometrics. Cambridge and New York. pp. 169-207.
12.
KherL. K. (1985). “Demand Modeling for Systems Planning Using Noisy Realization Theory.” Ph.D. Dissertation. Cleveland, Ohio: Case Western Reserve University, Systems Engineering Dept.
13.
KherL. K.SorooshianS. (1986). “Identification of Water Demand Models from Noisy Data.” Water Resources Research, 22: 3, pp. 322-330.
14.
ManneA. S. (1981). ElA-MACRO: A User’s Guide. Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI EA-1724.
15.
ManneA. S. (1977). ETA-MACRO: A Model of Energy-Economy Interactions. Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI EA-592.
16.
San GregorioJ.ZakemA.J.(1982). “Uncertainty in Load Forecasting.” In Approaches to Load Forecasting: Proceedings of the Third EPRI Load-Forecasting Symposium. Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI EA-2471.
17.
Shaw JrR.W. (1980). Electric Load Forecasting: Challenges for the 80s. Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI EA-1536.
18.
SearlM. F. (1986). “Electricity and Economic Growth in the United States 1902-1982—An Aggregation Analysis.” InShurrS. H.SoneblumS., eds., Electricity Use, Productive Efficiency, and Economic Growth. Electric Power Research Institute.
19.
SioshansiF. P. (1983). “Energy. Electricity and the U.S. Economy: Exploring the Changing Relationships.” Paper presented at ORSA/TIMS meeting, Orlando, Florida. November 7-9, 1983.
20.
SioshansiF. P. (1986). “Energy, Electricity and the U.S. Economy: Emerging Trends.” The Energy Journal7(2): 81-90.
21.
Southern California Edison Company (1986). “Planning for Uncertainty.” System Planning &Research 1 department.
22.
UhlerR.G.NelsonC.R. (1985). NERC Summary Load Forecasts: A Retrospective Appraisal and Technical Analysis, Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI EA-4355 (December).
