In the early 1980s, soft world oil markets were accompanied by two important and unforeseen world economic developments: stagnant economic growth and an appreciating dollar. The virtual standstill in economic growth from 1980 to 1982 was well off the 3 percent-plus growth path many analysts had anticipated. This experience, coupled with large shifts in oil inventory holdings by consumers (and perhaps increased consumer responses to oil prices), has led to a steady accumulation of unused productive capacity in the world oil market.
BradenDavid (1981). “A Conceptual Framework for Understanding Simulation Models of the World Oil Market.” Stanford University, Energy Modeling Forum Working Paper 5.11. Stanford, Calif. (January ).
2.
Council of Economic Advisors (1982, 1983). Economic Report of the President. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office (February).
3.
DenisonEdward F. (1981). “International Transactions in Measures of the Nation’s Production. ” Survey of Current Business 61, No. 5 (May).
4.
Department of Energy (1983). Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Washington, D.C. (January14).
5.
DunkerlyJoyJankowski John E. Jr. (1980). “The Real Price of Imported Oil.” Energy Journal1, No. 3 (July).
6.
Energy Modeling Forum (1982a). World. Oil. Stanford University, Energy Modeling Forum Report 6. Stanford, Calif. (February).
7.
Energy Modeling Forum (1982b). “World Oil Price Projections.” Stanford University, Energy Modeling Forum Working Paper 6.15. Stanford, Calif. (September).
8.
HoganWilliam W. (1981). “Dimensions of Energy Demand.” In Hans H. Lands-berg (ed.), Selected Studies on Energy—Background Paper for Energy: The Next Twenty Years. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger.
9.
International Monetary Fund (1983). Intemational Financial Statistics. Washington, D.C. (June).
10.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (1980). “The Impact of Oil on the World Economy.” OECD Economic Outlook (July).
11.
RowanHenry S.WeyantJohn P. (1981). “A Possible ‘Collapse’ in Oil Prices: Implications for U.S. Industry and Government.” Mimeographed, Stanford University (July).
12.
WeismanHarold (1983). International Energy Prices and Taxes: First Quarter of 1978—Second Quarter of1982. Washington, D.C.: Energy' Information Administration, Department of Energy, EMEU/STID/83-02 (March).
