Abstract
This paper advances some principles for practical application of natural gas models that were used during the EMF 23 study. These principles emphasize a decision-focused perspective, embrace uncertainty, demand consistency of model results with observable facts, are capable of navigating the complexity of systems, and distinguish insight from unattainable precision. The principles are designed to foster the assistance of better decision making by models and modelers.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Energy Modeling Forum
(2007 ). Prices and Trade in a Globalizing Natural Gas Market, Working Group Report 23, Volume I, Stanford University, Stanford, CA.
2.
Hartley
Peter
Medlock
Kenneth
Rosthal
Jennifer
(2007 ). “The Relationship Between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices ”, James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy and Department of Economics, Rice University, November .
3.
Kahneman
Daniel
Tversky
Amos
(1979 ). “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk ”, Econometrica, 47 : 263 -291 .
4.
Kaufman
G.M.
(1986 ). “Finite Population Sampling Methods for Oil and Gas Resource Estimation ”, Oil and Gas Assessment, AAPG Studies in Geology #21, May .
5.
Pfeffer
Jeffrey
Sutton
Robert
(2006 ). Hard Facts, Dangerous Half Truths, and Total Nonsense, Harvard University Press .
6.
Schwartz
Peter
(1991 ). The Art of the Long View, Doubleday Business Press.
7.
Stibolt
Robert D.
(1987 ). “Analysis of Mt. Belvieu Natural Gas Liquids Trading Strategy ”, Atlantic Richfield memorandum, unpublished.
8.
Stibolt
Robert D.
(1988 ). “Analysis of Multiple Plays in the Offshore Gulf of Mexico Using the Inferential Arps-Roberts Discovery Process Model ”, Atlantic Richfield memorandum, 1988, unpublished.
9.
Villar
Jose A.
Joutz
Frederick L.
(2006 ). “The Relationship Between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices ”, Energy Information Administration, October .
