This paper presents some evidence of an asymmetric effect of oil price spikes upon the U.S. economy. It appears thatprice increases may be associattd with reductions in economic activities, while price decreases do not display a distinct relationship with the economy. Possible explanationsfor these results are oflered.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
BurbidgeJohnHarrisonAlan (1984). “Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions.” International Economic Review25(2): 459-484.
2.
Bureau of Economic Analysis (1989). Stare Personal Income: 1929-87. U.S. Department of Commerce: Washington, D.C., (July).
3.
Bureau of Economic Analysis (1990). Survey of Current Business. U.S. Department of Commerce: Washington, D.C., (September).
4.
Bureau of Economic Analysis (1991). Survey of Currenr Business. U.S. Department of Commerce: Washington, D.C., (October).
5.
CostanzaRobertHombeckDouglas (1979). Input-Output Analysis as a Tool for Evaluating the Economic Effects of Supply Constraints (report to the Florida Governor’s Energy Office). Tallahassee, Florida: Florida Energy Offrce.
6.
DarbyMichael R. (1982). “The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession.” American Economic Review72(4): 738-751.
7.
Energy Information Administration (July, 1983). Impacts of World Oil Market Shocks on the U.S. Economy. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy.
8.
Energy Information Administration (1991). Annual Energy Review, 1990. Washington, D.C. U.S. Depadment of Energy.
9.
GisserMichaGoodwinThomas H. (1986). “Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: T∼ests of Some Popular Notions.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 18(l): 95-103.
10.
GordonRobert (1984). Macroeconomics. Third Edition. Boston: Little, Brown, and Company.
11.
GrangerC.W.J.NewboldPaul (1986). Forecasting Economic Time Series. Second Edition. San Diego, California: Academic Press.
12.
HamiltonJames D. (1983). “Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War II.” Journal of Politiical Economy96(3): 593-617.
13.
HamiltonJames D. (1985). “Historical Causesof Postwar Oil Shocks and Recessions.” The Energy Journal6(1): 97-116.
14.
HamiltonJames D. (1988a). Review of “Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks,” by Bert G. Hickman, Hillard G. Hintington, and James L. Sweene, 1987, New York: North-Holland. Journal of Economic Literature26: 1756-1757.
15.
HamiltonJames D. (1988b). “A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle.” Journal of Political Economy96(3): 593-617.
16.
HelkieWilliam L. (1991). “The Impact of an Oil Market Disruption on the Price of Oil: A Sensitivity Analysis.” The Energy Journal12(4): 105-116.
17.
HickmanEtert G.HuntingtonHillard G.SweeneyJames J. (1987), eds., Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks. Contributions to economic analysis series No. 163. New York: North-Holland.
18.
JohnstonJohn (1984). Economerric Methods. Third Edition. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company.
19.
JudgeGeorge G. R.CarterHillGriftithsWilliam E.LutkepohlHelmutLeeTsoung-Chao (1985).The theory and Practice of Econometrics. Second Edition. New York: John Wiley and sons.
20.
JudgeGeorge GCarterHillGriftithsWilliam E.LutkepohlHelmutLeeTsoung-Chao (1988). Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics. Second Edition. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
21.
KaziUmarfatuk A. (1989). “An Exploratory Stochastic Framework to Analyze the Relationship Between Macro Oil Price Shocks and Economic Development.” Energy Economics ll(3): 228-238.
22.
LounganiPrakash (1986). “Oil Price Shocks and the Dispersion Hypothesis.” The Review of Economics and Statistics68(3): 536-539.
23.
MorkKnut Anton (1989). “Oil and the Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton’s Results.” Journal of Political Economy97(3): 740-744.
24.
NassehRezaElyasianiElyas (1984). “Energy Price Shocks in the 1970s: Impact on Industrialized Economies.” Energy Economics6(4): 231-244.
25.
RicardoDavid (1821). The Principles of Political Economy and Taration. London: Everyman’s Library, J.M. Dent &Sons Ltd., 1973.
26.
StemPaul C.Improving Energy Demand Analysis. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.
27.
VarianHal R. (1984). Microeconomic Analysis. Second Edition. New York: W.W. Norton and Company.
