Multiple Energy Supply Risks,Optimal Reserves,and Optimal Domestic Production Capacities *

Abstract

This study starts from the observation that today’s Western trading nations are exposed to multiple risks of energy supplies, e.g. simultaneous shortage of oil and electricity supplies. To cope with these risks, oil can be stockpiled as well as domestic capacity for power production built up. Adopting the viewpoint of a policy maker who aims at minimizing the expected cost of security of supply, optimal simultaneous adjustments of oil stocks and electric production capacities to exogenous changes such as economic growth are derived. Against this benchmark, one-dimensional rules such as “oil reserves for 90 days” turn out to be not only suboptimal but also to foster adjustments that exacerbate suboptimality.

Keywords

Energy supply risk Stockpiling Energy policy Shocks

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