Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Abstract

The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska is simultaneously the most promising onshore area for oil exploration and one of the wildest areas remaining in the USA. The conflict between the need to develop energy resources and the desire to preserve wild areas has led to a prolonged debate over the merits of programs to lease the region for oil exploration and development.

In this study we report on a risk analysis of the oil potential of the ANWR. We develop a comprehensive simulation model of the oil exploration, development and production process in the ANWR based on publicly available data on the oil geology of the region. Compared to existing models of the ANWR, this model is unique in that it simultaneously takes into account the essential geologic characteristics of the region and the dynamic nature of the development process. The model projects the volume of oil production over time, oil industry profits and net national economic benefits, all in probabilistic terms.

The model provides a unifying framework for evaluating the limitations of previous models. It also allows us to better assess the potential role of the ANWR in future U.S. oil production, to evaluate the effects of policies that would mitigate environmental damage and, in general, to better frame the debate between advocates and opponents of development.

Keywords

Oil exploration ANWR Alaska Risk analysis environmental protection

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Clough

N. K.

Patton

P.C.

Christiansen

A. C.

, eds. (1987). “Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, Coastal Plain Resource Assessment.” Washington, DC: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Geological Survey and Bureau of Land Management.

Cooke

L. W.

(1985). “Estimates of Undiscovered, Economically Recoverable Oil and Gas Resources for the Outer Continental Shelf as of July 1984.” U.S. Department of Interior, Minerals Management Service.

Energy Information Administration (1987). “Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.”

Fisher

A. C.

Hanemann

W. M.

(1987). “Quasi-option Value: Some Misconceptions Dispelled.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 14: 183-190.

Goerold

W. T.

(1987). “Environmental and Petroleum Resource Conflicts: A Simulation Model to Determine the Benefits of Petroleum Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska.” Materials and Society 11(3): 279-307.

Goerold

W. T.

(1988). “A Simulation Model to Determine the Probability of Finding Economically Producible Petroleum in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), Alaska.” Proceedings. Tenth Annual North American Conference, International Association for Energy Economics. Houston, TX, October 31 - November 2: 387-398.

Hansen

J. J.

Kombrath

R. W.

(1986). “Resource Appraisal Simulation for Petroleum in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska.” State of Alaska, Department of Natural Resources, Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, Professional Report 90.

Hogan

W. W.

Leiby

P. N.

(1985). “Oil Market Risk Analysis.” #H-85-03. Discussion Paper Series, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.

National Petroleum Council (1981). “U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas.”

10.

Powell

S. G.

(1990). “Arctic National Wildlife Refuge - How Much Oil Can We Expect?” Resources Policy (September).

11.

U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment (1989). “Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: The Technology and the Alaskan Oil Context.” OTA-E-394. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office (February).

12.

Watson

Robert K.

(1991). “Looking for Oil in All the Wrong Places.” Natural Resources Defense Council (February).

13.

Young

J. S.

Hauser

W. S.

(1986). “Economics of Oil and Gas Production for ANWR for the Determination of Minimum Economic Field Size.” Bureau of Land Management, Alaska State Office, Division of Mineral Resources.

A Risk Analysis of Oil Development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

Abstract

Keywords

Get full access to this article

References