Restricted accessResearch articleFirst published online 1990-10
Low-Cost Strategies for Coping with CO 2 Emission Limits (A Critique of “CO 2 Emission Limits: an Economic Cost Analysis for the USA” by Alan Manne and Richard Richels)
Manne and Richels (Manne and Richels, 1990) have developed a useful modelling framework for evaluating the potential economic impacts of alternative strategies for coping with greenhouse wanning. Their estimate is that the discounted present value of economic consumption losses arising from a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions through the next century is in the range of $0.8 to $3.6 trillion. This critique shows that the options for reducing C02 emissions through energy demand reduction and energy supply shifts are much broader than those considered by Manne and Richels in the initial run of their model. The possibilities are so diverse with both present and future technologies, that the minimum C02 emissions constraint penalty estimated by Manne and Richels may well prove to be too high - and the possibility of a negative penalty cannot be ruled out. Manne and Richels are correct in arguing that a vigorous R&D program is needed to keep economic consumption losses associated with constraints on C02 emissions at low levels, and that waiting for clarification of the scientific issues relating to the greenhouse warming before launching such R&D efforts would be unwise, but the priorities for R&D implicit in the initial run of their model are much too narrowly focused. As this analysis indicates, a much more broadly based energy R&D program is called for.
DemisG.SoinskinA.RashkinS.JenkinsA.JohnsonR.RadovichM. (1989). Technology Characterizations, Final Report.” Staff Issue Paper #7R, Docket No. 88-ER-8, In the Matter of the 1990 Electricity Report (ER 90). Slate of California: Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission (October11).
2.
BodlundB.MillsE.KarlssonT.JohanssonT. (1989). “The Challenge of Choices: Technology Options for the Swedish Electricity Sector.” In T. Johannson, B. Bodlund and R. Williams, eds., Electricity: Efficient End-Use and New Generation Technologies and Their Planning Implications. Lund, Sweden: Lund University Press.
3.
CarlsonD. (1989). “Low-Cost Power from Thin-Film Photovoltaics,” In T. Johannson, B. Bodlund and R. Williams, eds., Electricity: Efficient End-Use and New Generation Technologies and Their Planning Implications. Lund, Sweden: Lund University Press.
4.
ChandlerW.GellerH.LedbetterM. (1988). Energy Efficiency: A New Agenda. Washington, DC American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy.
5.
CicchettiC.CurkendallS. (1987). “Are Energy-Efficiency Programs Worth It?” In WoodD.O., ed., Papers and Proceedings of the Eighth Annual North American Conference of the International Association of Energy Economists. Cambridge, MA:: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (May).
6.
CicchettiC.HoganW. (1988). “Including Unbundled Demand Side Options in Electric Utility Bidding Programs.” Energy and Environmental Policy Center Report No. E-88-07. Cambridge, MA Kennedy School of Government, Harvard Univ.
7.
CormanJ. (1986). “System Analysis of Simplified 1GCC Plants.” Report prepared for the US Department of Energy at the Corporate R&D Center, General Electric Company, Schenectady, ET-14928-13 (September).
8.
Department of Energy (1989). “Assessment of Costs and Benefits of Flexible and Alternative Fuel Use in the US Transportation Sector. Technical Report Three: Methanol Production and Transportation Cost.” Washington, DC (August).
9.
Electric Power Research Institute (1986). Technical Assessment Guide. Palo Alto, CA.
10.
Energy Information Administration (1988). Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(87). Washington, DC.
11.
Environmental Protection Agency (1989). Policy Options for Stabilizing the Global Climate. Draft paper. Washington, DC (February).
12.
FulkersonW. (1989). Energy Technology R&D: What Could Make a Difference? Volume 2: Supply Technology. ORNL-6541/V2/P2. Study (December).
13.
GoldembergJ.JohanssonT.ReddyA.WilliamsR (1988). Energy for a Sustainable World. Delhi: Wiley-Eastern.
14.
GreeneD. (1990). “CAFE OR PRICE? An Analysis of the Effects of Federal Fuel Economy Regulations and Gasoline Price on New Car MPG, 1978-89.” The Energy Journal11(3): 3758.
15.
GrubbM. (1988). The Potential for Wind Energy in Britain.” Energy Policy (December):594-607.
16.
LedbetterM.RossM. (1990). “A Supply Curve of Conserved Energy for Automobiles.” Proceedings of the 1990 Intersociety Energy Conversion Engineering Conference. Reno, Nevada (August).
17.
LucasE.MontgomeryG.DeMeoE.SteeleyW. (1989). “The EPRI-Utility-USW Advanced Wind Turbine Program-Status and Plans.” Paper presented at the 1989 American Wind Energy Association Conference, “Windpower '89,” September 25-27, San Francisco, CA.
18.
ManneA.RichelsR. (1990). “CO2 limission Limits: an Economic Cost Analysis for the USA.” The Energy Journal11(2): 51-74.
19.
MartinJ.-M. (1988). “L’IntensitéÉnergetique de L’Activité Économique dans les Pays Industrialises: Les Evolutions de Tres Longue Periode Livrent-Ellcs des Enseignements Utiles.” Économies et Societés4: 9-27.
20.
MillerP.EtoJ.GcllcrH. (1989). “The Potential for Energy Conservation in New York State.” Washington, DC: American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy.
21.
MoskowitzD. (1989). “Cutting the Nation’s Electric Bill.” Issues in Science and Technology12(3): 88-93.
22.
New Farm and Forest Products Task Force (1987). “New Farm and Forest Products — Responsive to the Challenges and Opportunities Facing American Agriculture.” Report to the Secretary of Agriculture.
23.
NordhausW. (1977). “The Demand for Energy: an International Perspective.” In NordhausW., ed., International Studies of the Demand for Energy. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
24.
Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis, US Department of Energy (1990). The Potential of Renewable Energy. SERI/TP-260-3674. An Intcrlaboratory White Paper (March).
25.
Office of Technology Assessment (1980). Energy from Biological Processes. Washington, DC: US Congress.
26.
OgdenJ.WilliamsR. (1989). Solar Hydrogen: Moving Beyond Fossil Fuels. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.
27.
RossM. (1989). “The Potential for Reducing the Energy Intensity and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in U.S. Manufacturing” Physics Dept., U. of Michigan, and Energy and Environmental Systems Division, Argonne National laboratory.
28.
SmithD. (1987). “The Wind Farms of the Altamont Pass Area.” Annual Review of Energy12: 145-183.
29.
Solarex (1990a). “Solarex Breaks Efficiency Record with Triple Junction Amorphous Silicon.” Press release. Rockville, MD (May23).
30.
Solarex (1990b). “Solarex Announces Major Manufacturing Milestone for Promising Thin Film Technology.” Press release. Rockville, MD (May25).
31.
ThompsonG. (1981). “The Prospects for Wind and Wave Power in North America.” PU/CEES 117. Center for Environmental Studies, Princeton University (June).
32.
WeinbergC.WilliamsR. (1990). “Energy from the Sun.” Scientific American263(3): 146-155 (September).
33.
WilliamsR. (1987). “A Low Energy Future for the United States.” Energy12(10-11): 939-944.
34.
WilliamsR.LarsonE.RossM. (1987). “Materials, Affluence, and Industrial Energy Use.” Annual Review of Energy12: 99-144.
35.
WilliamsR.FeivesonH. (1990). “Diversion-Resistance Criteria for Future Nuclear Power.” Energy Policy18(6): 543-549 (July/August).
36.
WilliamsR. (1989). “Biomass Gasifier/Gas Turbine Power and the Greenhouse Warming.” In Energy Technologies for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases. Proceedings of an Experts' Seminar, 2. Paris (12-14 April): 197-248.
37.
WilliamsR. (1989a). “Innovative Approaches to Marketing Electric Efficiency.” In JohannsonT.BodlundB.WilliamsR., eds., Electricity: Efficient End-Use and New Generation Technologies and Their Planning Implications. Lund, Sweden: Lund University Press.
38.
WilliamsR.LarsonE. (1989). “Expanding Roles for Gas Turbines in Power Generation.” In JohannsonT.BodlundB.WilliamsR., eds., Electricity: Efficient End-Use and New Generation Technologies and Their Planning Implications. Lund, Sweden: Lund University Press.
39.
WymanCHinmanN. (1989). “Ethanol: Fundamentals of Production from Renewable Feedstocks and Use as a Transportation Fuel.” Golden, CO: Solar Energy Research Institute.
40.
ZerbeJ. (1986). “Forest Service Response to the National Energy Situation.” In U.S. Department of Agriculture, Sixth Annual Solar, Biomass, and Wind Energy Workshop. Atlanta, Georgia (February 25-27): 33-58.
41.
ZweibelK.UllalH. (1989). “Thin-Film Photovoltaics.” Paper prepared for the 24th Intersoriety Energy Conversion Engineering Conference, Washington, DC (6-11 August).
