This paper, based on an econometric analysis of annual data since 1965, examines the prospects for US highway travel and fuel demand, disaggregated by vehicle type (cars and light trucks). Despite projections by the US Department of Energy (DOE/EIA) of virtually no change in highway fuel use in the 1990s, we project a growth rate of about 1.3% annually. DOE/EIA assumes extraordinarily rapid improvement in fuel efficiency and relatively slow growth in large trucks’ vehicle miles. We project slower gains in fuel efficiency, for all types of vehicles, and faster growth for large trucks’ vehicle miles.
BaltagiBadi H.GriffinJames G. (1984). “Short and Long Run Effects in Pooled Models”. International Economic Review 25(3).
2.
BaltagiBadi H.GriffinJames G. (1984). “U. S. Gasoline Demand: What Next?” The Energy Journal5(1): 129-40.
3.
BohiDouglas R. (1981). Analyzing Demand Behavior A Study of Energy Elasticities. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
4.
DahlCarol A. (1961). “Consumer Adjustment to a Gasoline Tax”, Review of Economics and Statistics (August): 427-32.
5.
DahlCarol A. (1986). “Gasoline Demand Survey”, The Energy Journal 7(1): 67-82.
6.
DrollasLeonidas P. (1984). “The demand for gasoline”. Energy Economics (January): 71-82.
7.
DunkerleyDunkerleyHochIrving (1987). “Energy for Transport in Developing Countries”. The Energy Journal 8(3): 57-72.
8.
GalliniNancy T. (1983). “Demand for Gasoline in Canada”. Canadian Journal of Economics 16(2): 298-324.
9.
GatelyDermot. (1988). “Taking Off: The U.S. Demand for Air Travel and Jet Fuel”. The Energy Journal 9(4): 63-91.
10.
GatelyGatelyRappoportPeter (1988). “The Adjustment of US Oil Demand to the Price Increases of the 1970’s”. The Energy Journal9(2): 93-107.
11.
GrilichesGrilichesOhtaMakoto (1986). “Automobile Tastes and Quality: Did the Gasoline Price Increases Change Consumer Tastes in the US?” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics4(2): 187-98.
12.
ManneringManneringWinstonClifford (1985). “A Dynamical Empirical Analysis of Household Vehicle Ownership and Utilization”. Rand Journal of Economics 16(2): 215-236.
13.
TraillTraillColmanDavidYoungTrevor (1978). “Estimating Irreversible Supply Functions”. American Journal of Agriculutral Economics (August): 528-531.
14.
U. S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (1985). Consumption Patterns of Household Vehicles 1983. DOE/EIA-0464(83). Washington, DC 20585 (January).
15.
U. S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (1987). Annual Energy Outlook 1986, with Projections to 2000. DOE/EIA-0383(86). Washington, DC 20585 (February).
16.
U. S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. “TPL Tables” for Annual Energy Outlook 1986, with Projections to 2000. (Energy Analysis and Forecasting Division). Washington. DC. 20585.
17.
U. S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (1989). Annual Energy Outlook 1989, with Projections to 2000. DOE/EIA-0383(89). Washington, DC 20585 (January).
18.
U.S. Federal Highway Administration (1987). “Trends and Forecasts of Highway Passenger Travel”. Working Paper No. 2. The Future National Highway Program: 1991 and Beyond (December).
