North American Natural Gas Markets: Summary of an Energy Modeling Forum Study

Abstract

This paper summarizes the research by the Ninth Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group which focused on the evolution of the North American natural gas market through 2010 _ The group analyzed four standardized scenarios: upper and lower oil price paths, the low U.S. natural gas resource base, and high U.S. natural gas demand. The group sought to develop insights about the gas market’s development under these scenarios by using economic models and additional analyses. Some of the most critical factors highlighted in the study, that will affect the usage and price of gas in the future, are the nature of the gas-oil substitution in the industrial and utility boiler market, which will depend on relative burnertip residual fuel oil to gas prices, the incremental costs of finding and producing additional gas supplies in the U.S. and Canada, and the amount of potential gas imports.