This empirical study examines the tourism-led growth hypothesis for Croatia using quarterly data from 2000:1 to 2008:3. The Toda– Yamamoto long-run causality tests reveal positive unidirectional causality from real GDP to international tourism revenues, as well as positive unidirectional causality from real GDP to the real effective exchange rate. Thus, the results lend support for the economic-driven tourism growth hypothesis.
BalaguerL.Cantavella-JordaM. (2002), ‘Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: The Spanish case’, Applied Economics, Vol 34, pp 877–884.
2.
BelluloA.KrižmanD. (2000), ‘Utjecaj Promjena U Dohocima Glavnih Emitivnih Zemalja Na Turistieki Proet U Hrvatskoj' [Impact of income changes of major tourist-generating countries on the performance of Croatian tourism]’, Ekonomski Pregled, Vol 51, pp 681–699.
3.
DickeyD.FullerW.A. (1979), ‘Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol 74, pp 427–431.
4.
DritsakisN. (2004), ‘Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: An empirical investigation for Greece using causality tests’, Tourism Economics, Vol 10, pp 305–316.
5.
DurbarryR. (2004), ‘Tourism and economic growth: The case of Mauritius’, Tourism Economics, Vol 10, pp 389–401.
6.
GunduzL.Hatemi-JA. (2005), ‘Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?’, Applied Economics Letters, Vol 12, pp 499–504.
7.
HazariB.R.KaurC. (1995), ‘Tourism and welfare in the presence of pure monopoly in the non-traded goods sector’, International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol 4, pp 171–177.
8.
HazariB.R.NgA. (1993), ‘An analysis of tourists' consumption on non-traded goods and services on the welfare of domestic consumers’, International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol 2, pp 3–58.
9.
KatirciogluS.T. (2009), ‘Revisiting the tourism-led growth hypothesis for Turkey using the bounds test and Johansen approach for cointegration’, Tourism Management, Vol 30, pp 17–20.
10.
KimH.J.ChenM.H.JangS.C. (2006), ‘Tourism expansion and economic development: The case of Taiwan’, Tourism Management, Vol 27, pp 925–933.
11.
LeeC.C.ChangC.P. (2008), ‘Tourism development and economic growth: A closer look at panels’, Tourism Management, Vol 29, pp 180–192.
12.
McKinnonR. (1964), ‘Foreign exchange constraints in economic development and efficient aid allocation’, Economic Journal, Vol 74, pp 388–409.
13.
MervarA.PayneJ.E. (2007), ‘Analysis of foreign tourism demand for Croatian destinations: Long-run elasticity estimates’, Tourism Economics, Vol 13, pp 407–420.
14.
NarayanP.K. (2004), ‘Economic impact of tourism on Fiji's economy: Empirical evidence from the computable general equilibrium model’, Tourism Economics, Vol 10, pp 419–433.
15.
OhC. (2005), ‘The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy’, Tourism Management, Vol 26, pp 39–44.
16.
PayneJ.E.MervarA. (2002), ‘A note on modelling tourism revenues in Croatia’, Tourism Economics, Vol 8, pp 103–109.
17.
PhillipsP.C.B.PerronP. (1988), ‘Testing for a unit root in time series regression’, Biometrika, Vol 75, pp 335–346.
18.
StučkaT. (2000), ‘OLS Model Fizičkih Pokazatelja Inozemnog Turističkog Prometa Na Hrvatskom Tržištu [Physical indicators of foreign tourist activity in Croatia: Ols model]’, Istraživanja, Croatian National Bank, September, pp 1–7.
19.
TangC.H.JangS.C. (2009), ‘The tourism–economy causality in the United States: A sub-industry level examination’, Tourism Management, Vol 30, pp 553–558.
20.
TodaH.Y.YamamotoT. (1995), ‘Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated process’, Journal of Econometrics, Vol 66, pp 225–250.
21.
ZapataH.O.RambaldiA.N. (1997), ‘Monte Carlo evidence on cointegration and causation’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol 59, pp 285–298.