The Elements of Surprise: Assessing Burma's Double-Edged détente

Abstract

If anything is more surprising than Burma's recent adoption of democratic reforms, it is that military rule lasted so long without such reforms in the first place. This article considers this paradox from both a country-specific and comparative-theoretical perspective, and argues that both perspectives are essential for analysing Burma's uncertain reform process as it unfolds or unravels. It portrays the top-down reform process as one of double-edged détente between the ruling Tatmadaw and its internal rivals as well as its external critics. This détente is inherently fragile because it rests on the current regime's confidence that democratization will produce neither serious instability nor even its own decisive defeat. Events that shake the Tatmadaw's ‘victory confidence’ and ‘stability confidence’ should thus pose the greatest risk that reforms will be stalled or reversed.