The characteristics of gross grain output between 1949 and 2012 and the effects of different crops and production regions on fluctuations between 1978 and 2012 in China were analysed using empirical mode decomposition and variance decomposition methods. Grain output has shown a tendency to increase since 1970. Rice, wheat and corn were the primary crops contributing to gross grain output fluctuation, with rice playing the most significant role. The middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River contributed most to output fluctuation, followed by the northeast and Huang-Huai-Hai regions. The findings provide important evidence concerning trends in grain production in China.
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