Persistence in International Monthly Arrivals in the Canary Islands

Abstract

This study analyses persistence in international monthly arrivals to the Canary Islands using a model based on fractional integration and seasonal autoregressions. Thus, the estimate of the fractional differencing parameter gives an indication of the long-run evolution of the series, while the AR coefficient refers to the short-run seasonal dynamics. The authors use both aggregate and disaggregate data by location of origin and island destination. The results show that the aggregate series corresponding to the total number of international arrivals in the Canary Islands is an I(d) process, with d slightly above 0.5, and the most persistent arrivals are those coming from Scandinavia and travelling to La Palma.

Keywords

monthly arrivals seasonal fractional integration persistence Canary Islands

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