Asia versus Oceania: Comparative Net Shifts in Tourist Arrivals

Abstract

The study examines tourist arrivals from 1990 to 2002 inclusive in a selection of Asian and Oceania countries, and forecasts arrivals in each region from each other region for 2005–07. The analysis shows that from 2000 to 2002 Asia had a competitive advantage over Oceania in travel from Africa, the Americas, Europe and the Middle East. Also, during 1995–2000, Asia failed to attract visitor arrivals from Africa and Europe but gained more from the Americas compared to Oceania. The future net shifts in visitor arrivals in Asia between 2002 and 2007 suggest that, compared to Oceania, there will be a negative net shift of 859,819 and that Asia will be competitively inferior to Oceania with respect to Africa, Europe and the Middle East.

Keywords

forecasting tourism trade tourism impacts trade shift shift share

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