Use of Intervention Models to Assess the Effects of the EU Presidency on Revenues from International Tourism

Abstract

A key factor in evaluating the economic benefits generated by an EU presidency is the revenue obtained from international tourism. The analytical problem can be solved by the application of heuristic approaches, which relate revenues from international tourist travel during the six-month presidency to an adequately chosen average or trend; or by using intervention models which are able to deal with the complex problem. The present study concentrates mainly on the second approach, using Austria as a case in point. The estimates found that the EU presidency had raised foreign currency revenues in Austria by about 3½% in the second half of 1998.