Before COVID-19, tourist destinations have experienced problems with congestion of both famous tourist attractions and public transportation. Over-tourism is not an issue at this time, but it is likely to rekindle after the COVID-19 pandemic ends. One method of mitigating over-tourism is to estimate tourist behavior using a tourist transition model and consequently adjust public transportation operations. In this study, we propose a construction method for a model of tourist transitions among tourist attractions based on tourist GPS trajectory data. We construct tourist transition models using actual trajectory data for tourists staying in the vicinity of Kyoto City. The results verify the model performance.
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