Identifying and evaluating the influence of factors that predict offenders' post-release performance is central to the study of recidivism. In this project, 60,536 adult prison releases from the Oklahoma Department of Corrections between 1985 and 1999 were tracked until May 31, 2004. Recidivism was measured as a return to incarceration and cases were analyzed with a Cox Proportional Hazards Survival Regression, which allowed for the assessment of the relative hazards of returning to prison over time. Predictor variables included offense type, release type (probation, parole, discharge), number of prior incarcerations, sentence length, time served in prison, security classification, education, age, sex, and race. A greater hazard of recidivism was associated with being a property offender (as opposed to a drug, violent, or sex offender), being released to probation (as opposed to being discharged), having a violent offense history, having a greater number of past incarcerations, and being young, male, and a racial minority. Sentence length and time served in prison had weak (but significant) associations with recidivism, while security classification and proportion of sentence served (as proxies for institutional performance) indicated modestly positive, significant relationships.
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