Abstract
Non-quantitative observers such as journalists, lawyers and physicians can observe human rights violations in casual assessments. However, in order to describe the “big picture”, accurately gathered data on the magnitude of violations, information on bias that might have affected the data collection and interpretation and the distribution of responsibilities among perpetrators are essential for human rights reporting.
This paper discusses the work of the UN Commission for Historical Clarification in Guatemala as an example of how statistical methods were used to estimate the total number of people killed during the period 1960–1996 (magnitude); to evaluate whether in the aggregate there had been greater focus on documenting violations committed by the guerrillas of the URNG (Unidad Revolucionaria Nacional Guatemalteca) or those committed by agents of the government of Guatemala (project bias); and then how we estimated the relative proportions of violations committed by the URNG and the government (responsibility). It concludes with a call for future research in the application of existing methods and the development of new theoretical approaches to continue increasing the statistical rigor in the analysis of human rights violations.
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