Future emissions to air in Norway: Forecasts based on the macroeconomic Model MSG-4E

Abstract

Environmental problems, and in particular air pollution, are linked to economic activities. General economic equilibrium models are therefore adequate tools in forecasting future emissions to air, and in analysing effects and costs associated with control measures. Due to uncertain forecasts, care must be taken in interpreting the results. Rather than giving the exact number of tons emitted in a future year, the forecasts serve as indicators on whether or not expected economic development is likely to produce unacceptably high stresses on the environment. If regulatory measures are introduced as a consequence of such signals, the forecasts, hopefully, turn out to be wrong. Thus, it is important that emission forecasts are updated as an integral part of the general planning process.