Some aspects concerning the short-term forecasting of complex economic phenomena

Abstract

Box–Jenkins methods can be employed for purposes of forecasting complex economic series. Alternatively, exponential approximation with two parameters can also be used. It can be shown that this approximation can be transformed into stationary IMA processes of the order (0, 2, 2). Comparison of forecasting results reveals that both methods yield similar data. However, exponential approximation with two parameters permits to choose the starting point in the area of minimum fluctuations.