Abstract
Reshaping health statistics is a continuous process, but it strides with unequal pace. Some years carry promises of upcoming profound changes, while others only offer hard labour on smaller steps forward. In order to allow modest speculation on the next 5 years, the changes that took place in the past 15 years are considered and put onto historical perspective. Based on five examples (morbidity, causes of death, health and social accounts, health care production, and health interview surveys), common factors in the developments are sought.
In retrospect, decisive developments were improved technical, legal, and methodological possibilities to perform record linkage, both of persons and of institutions. These developments co-occurred with an increased permissiveness of public opinion about record linkage, and the existence of many external linkable data sets. Consequently, many statistics are now based upon multiple sources.
For the next 5 years, developments that build on the same approach are expected to dominate. Non-official health statistics will flourish, as other organisations can reap the benefits of new technology and record linkage too. This may lead to a variety of statistical approaches, with non-comparable outcomes. Continuing deregulation of health care is a threat for the stability of data sources and output descriptions.
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